Obligatory Afghanistan post…….

I don’t have a lot to say about the President’s speech last night. He essentially gave in to what can only be described as a back door blackmail by his Centcom commander and the commander in charge of the specific theater. Because he took so long to make the decision and because of the targeted leaks, that can only assume to have been coordinated by Petraeus supporters, the President was put in to a very predictable box. He gave McChrystal everything he wanted. Too bad it won’t do any good-either in Afghanistan or in Iraq.

Because the thing that is missing and will continue to be missing, is any definitive sign by the Afghans themselves that they need to change and not keep blowing opportunity after opportunity. I have zero faith in the Afghans-just as I have zero faith in the Iraqis. With the Iraqis, it is easily predictable-they are Arabs after all and Arabs screw up everything they touch. With the Afghans, there must be something in the water there-oh yea, its Islam.

Two things that I find really disturbing in the actions of the Presidents critics.

1) They ignore the fact that there was a limited window to make a difference in Afghanistan-and the US squandered that by invading Iraq.

2) The goal was never to “fix” Afghanistan to begin with. It was to get Al Quaeda. That we ACTUALLY have accomplished-at least in Afghanistan. Thanks to Iraq and the Pakistanis, however, the Al Quaeda disease has spread far and wide through the worlds blood stream. No amount of effort in Afghanistan can undo that.

If we really wanted to “fix Afghanistan”, then we should have hauled down the Afghan flag, made the place a US colony and prepared to govern the place for 100 years. Laws banning Islam would have had to been enacted, mosques torn down, Islamic rules scrapped and had a hell of a lot of Afghans killed up front. With emancipation of women, education, introduction of western mores, alcohol, and a more free wheeling life style-and crushing any remaining resistance-after a couple of generations the things that made the Afghans as screwed up as they are might have been eradicated.

Problem is-that course of action was a non-starter for a whole host of reasons-not the least of which is the fact that US does not do colonies anymore-and we screwed over the countries that did. Also we are really not on the amoral plane that would condone the genocide needed to accomplish the preceding actions. So the best we could really do was to punish the Taliban and the other insurgent fighters while hoping the Afghan’s would actually take advantage of the opportunities that were given them.

True to form-the Afghans did not.

There were three questions Obama did not answer last night -and are a hell of a lot more important than any discussion of any artificial “timetable”:

What are we going to do about the corruption and abuses of the Afghan government, arguably a more troublesome foe than the Taliban?

How does what we are doing relate to the security problems in Pakistan, to me a far bigger worry than anything happening in Afghanistan?

How are we going to afford the continued drain on our national will and resources this effort will cost-and when does the cost out weight the perceived benefits? 80 billion a year and for what?

Now about that timetable-I don’t think Obama should have mentioned it his speech. It should have come from voices other than his-if only so as to provide him a better out when 2011 rolls around and Afghanistan is still screwed up. Then again this could have been his way of telling the military, ” Ok-you love this COIN bullshit so much, here are the resources you asked for, now actually go out and prove it works”. Good but it will still be an albatross around his neck when actually does have to withdraw. As Stephen Walt pointed out:

Obama correctly refused to grant the corrupt Afghan government a “blank check,” but no serious analyst thinks we can train an Afghan army or create a strong Afghan state in a year and a half.  And if he is willing to cut Karzai & Co. off later, then success isn’t really a “vital national interest” after all. If that’s the case, why invest another $30 billion now? Nor did he explain how dispatching 30,000 more troops for eighteen months would eliminate al Qaeda’s safe havens or prevent them from making a comeback later on.

Obama cannot please either side: the right will place the credit for any success on their pet generals and any failure on Obama-and not the pet generals. They will oppose him no matter what he does. The left may want us out now and be right about it-but they have no place to go -except home. They are not the target audience here or there. Either way-the working Soldier or Marine has to continue to bear the burden of war without end, amen.

So it gets back to whether Afghanistan is in the national interest anymore. I don’t think so-but the President of the United States has made the decision it does. Time will tell which of us is right. I’m betting on me.