The Democratic candidates that is.
Or for that matter who John McCain is running against.
It is not the candidates-regardless of who wins the nomination. Nope, in either case, they have to run against the ugly baby in the room. The one you don’t mention-but whom 70% of the country hates.
With good reason.
That’s right, we are talking about George W. Bush, the man who as one commentator put it, “whose presidency has been the most disasterous since the Civil War. There is no area of policy that this president and his supporters can point to with anything less than deep shame.” The man who made the rich richer-the rest of us poorer, and dragged the United States into a war without end-amen.
He’s the guy that Obama or Hillary should go after-especially Obama.
For one thing, its hard to attack John McCain if you are Democrat-the guy actually served in uniform. He’s a real war hero and his credentials on the national security issue are pretty much impeccable. And thanks to George Bush’s beatification of General Petreaus-to run against the war is to oppose the American Soldier. Not a good place to be.
Never mind that before Petraeus was the solution-he was a part of the problem. He was a lackey for the “Rumsfeld strategy” that Mc Cain runs down at every opportunity. After the Move-on.org debacle last fall its pretty tough to point out that Petreaus was responsible for training the Iraqi Army. And that by fiat of the General and the Secretary of Defense today-that army was once again pronounced unready to fight for their own country.
No, for the Democrats the right move is run against two people-George W. Bush, who was the author of the war, for better or worse. And Nuri-al Malaki who is the personification of the Iraqi government or lack thereof.
Because the trick is, for the Democrats, is to seperate the Soldiers in the field, from the Iraqis they are fighting on the behalf of. Accept that military progress has been made. Revel in it! And then continually ask why-if the surge was such a success- American troop numbers cannot move downward?
The answer to that question is not a good one-no matter which explanation you choose to believe. Either the Iraqis under Malaki are unworthy of the sacrifices the Americans are making on their part, which is to some degree true, or its not simply Al Qaeda we are fighting in Iraq. Which is a plausible explanation when you consider events like this.
Either way, the challenge for the Democratic nominee is to split the Iraqis away from their American crutches, and make the election a referendum on George Bush’s crazy decision to climb hopelessly in the same bed with these poor people.
Running against the legacy of George Bush is a winning tactic. Transferring blame for the fact that the U.S. will be in Iraq for 50 years, to the Iraqis, is also an effective way to deflect the 30% of Americans who just won’t be turned away from the dark side of the American political force.
For McCain, the problem is harder because he has become so firmly identified with the war. His victory talk only makes sense if the war can be seen as a continuing surge success. Having to slow or stop the drawdown of forces-which not really a drawdown at all, simply an inability to continue because the Army is not big enough-punches holes in the argument that “victory is around the corner”.
Because its not-and besides, McCain cannot explain what victory is anyway.
Neither can anyone else.
And if you can successfully transfer blame for the war-the rest of the issues fall into place:
The Republicans have so damaged their own brand in the last 14 years that their own signature issues are lost to them, perhaps forever. Can you imagine a Republican candidate discussing family values with a straight face in 2008? Fiscal responsibility? A sane foreign policy? On issue after issue after issue, the GOP have blown themselves up on their own turf. They’re the political equivilent of that suicide bomber from a couple of weeks ago who died after falling down the stairs.
McCain has the same problem. The American people may not want to lose-but they don’t want to wait 50 years to win. So surge or not-the war is a drag on him. And on top of that he has another problem:
You think “Clinton fatigue” was an issue in 2000? Just wait, teenagers. And that’s the trap McCain’s in. He hates Bush as much as most right-thinking people do, but he can’t run against him without driving the lunatics to his right into fits of apoplexy. No matter what he does between now and the convention in September, John McCain has already been defined by the presidency of George W. Bush. This administration has locked any nominee into a cage of human bones and despair, and there’s no breaking out of it without antagonizing the 30% of Americans retarded enough to still approve of it.
McCain has to move the conversation away from the areas Bush is identified with. And that is going to be tough to do-it will be tougher if Obama is the nominee. Which is why he prays every night for Hillary’s success and for Obama to drop dead.
Because with Hillary-he can make the conversation about her. And not about the issues.
Which is why I want Obama to get the Democratic nomination.
So that I can have a choice in November.
And either way, by my vote, I can give the finger to George Bush.