It has been two years since I posted here – primarily because I have been writing on other platforms, allowing me to monetize my content. ( El Greedo strikes again!).
However, I have kept this website alive and will continue to do so, albeit with some rules and editorial provisions.
Given the current feeding frenzy of this years Presidential election, I thought I would ask a question of what an alternate timeline would have looked like.
What if Trump had died in October of 2020?
It is not an idle question.
Watching the disaster that is the 2024 Presidential campaign unfold, I keep wondering what would have happened if Trump had died of COVID in October 2020 when he became infected with it and was rushed to Walter Reed Hospital. (Before that, he held super spreader events that infected others and tried to infect President Biden at the debate).
All alternate histories have what is known as a “point of departure,” where the speculation of the story deviates from the actual timeline. For this story, the point of departure is that on Saturday, October 2, Trump was taken to the hospital. The doctors at Walter Reed were unable to save Trump’s life, and early in the morning of October 3, he passed into the great beyond and out of American life.
The following celebrations would have been epic, with massive street parties and people rejoicing that the orange monster could no longer inflict the damage on the American Republic that he had done for almost four years. But then, what might have happened?
October 2020 would have been a month of chaos like we had never seen in the US before. First, it probably would have been too late to remove Trump’s name from the ballot as, in many states, early voting was scheduled to start mid-month. Mike Pence would have been sworn in as President under the Constitution, but that does not necessarily mean he would have been the candidate from the Republican party for the next term.
The Republican National Committee would have to produce a new nominee, a process involving the 168 national members — three from each state and territory. However, since many states had already started printing, mailing, and accepting ballots, and some were scheduled to begin in-person voting, the name of a new nominee could be unlikely to be printed on ballots in time for Election Day.
Then, it would fall to individual states to decide how to proceed, and most have not set rules for this situation. People would have found themselves voting for a dead person. ( And in the case of Trump, that would have meant they were dead inside because they thought he was a legitimate choice).
The finger-pointing would have been fierce, as would the conspiracy theories that would surely follow.
What I believe would have happened is that Trump’s name would have remained on the ballot. If he lost, the problem would be solved. Indeed, Mike Pence would not have tried to overturn the election results like Trump did. There would have been massive and violent demonstrations by red hat-wearing Trump supporters both before and after the election, I am sure. If Trump had won, the RNC would have had to pick a new nominee, and it is unclear what the constitutionality of installing that person as President would be unless it were Pence. Some but not all states bind their electors to vote for whoever wins the state, but even most states with binding elector laws do not mention what could happen should a candidate die or be unable to serve.
It would have ended up in the Courts, and given the Supreme Court’s track record, who knows what would have happened. The only good news was that Amy Barrett may or may not have been put on the Court with record speed. I suspect that in the end, if SCOTUS ruled, Mike Pence would have become President, even though Biden would have won both the popular vote and the electoral college. The Court’s composition is what it was in October 2020. It has five conservatives, three liberals, and one vacancy — which would have meant that regardless of the law, they would have done their best to satisfy their masters at The Federalist Society.
But let’s say Biden did become President. What does the track record of the United States look like with no orange menace to prosecute or inflame public opinion?
2021 would have seen a much stronger effort to vaccinate the American population from COVID. In a sick sense, Trump’s death would have publicized how dangerous the disease was and is. Sadly, however, people like Rand Paul, Ron DeSantis, Kristi Noem, and others would have worked hard to undermine public health. Without Trump to underpin their efforts, it may not have been as effective.
The economy would still be in trouble, and Biden’s efforts would still have taken a while to change that, just as in the actual timeline. That said, Biden might have gotten more credit for the correct actions that were taken.
In foreign affairs, Russia would have still invaded Ukraine. But with no orange maniac trying to satisfy his master in Moscow, I feel the US effort would have been more unified to support Ukraine.
As the months went on, immigration would have been a significant issue still, and you can be damn sure people like DeSantis, Greg Abbott, and others would have demagogued on the issue.
I think the midterm elections would have till seen a split House and Senate. Why? The next paragraph explains.
Roe vs Wade may or may not have been overturned. I suspect it would have been, and it would still have impacted the 2022 mid-terms. With no Trump demanding absolute loyalty, state laws may not have been as draconian. Maybe. Maybe not. However, Samuel Alito was chomping at the bit to get his way so that it would have happened.
The Republican Presidential contest would have been a bloody free-for-all. DeSantis would have been campaigning hard as a candidate, as he would have taken up the mantle of Trump and tried to be an even more prominent fascist than Trump was. It may have backfired, primarily because of DeSantis’s personal demeanor. He’s not a nice person, nor is he a good campaigner. I think he would have been challenged far harder by other Republicans because the shadow of Trump would not have been hanging over the campaigns. It’s anybody’s guess who would have been the nominee. One thing that is still certain is that the GOP’s embrace of authoritarian policies would have still been there, but maybe not as pronounced.
Joe Biden would have become a one-term President because, without Trump, the Democratic establishment would have pushed him harder to step down because of his age. ( Take what is happening now in real life and triple it.). It would be interesting to see who would have come out on top on the Democratic side. Indeed, the election would be framed much, much differently. That said, the Heritage Foundation would have still pursued Project 2025. Without Trump in the background, it is questionable if people would have taken it as seriously as they do in the actual timeline.
The Gaza war would still have happened, assuming Netanyahu returned to office. Trump and his lackeys pretty much laid the foundation for it with their terrible Israel policies during 2017–2020. The flip side is that Bibi might not have been as reckless since he would not have been able to bet on a feckless Trump to get back in office. Hamas would still have struck, though, and Israel would have been caught unprepared thanks to Netanyahu’s actions, so our fictional timeline and the actual timeline would have been the same. The same is true with the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
There would have been no Trump criminal trials, which would have been a blessing in many ways. Aileen Cannon would have been a faceless, nameless judge instead of being exposed as a worthless hack and incompetent judge. There would have been no SCOTUS immunity decision on Presidential Immunity, which would have been very helpful. Sadly, most of the Court’s cave-ins to corporate America would have still occurred, and Clarence Thomas would still have been exposed as totally corrupt. However, his wife would not have been exposed as the traitor she turned out to be.
NATO would have been more secure and stronger; that is clear. Sweden and Finland would have joined, but that may have happened sooner without the shadow of Trump to embolden holdouts like Viktor Orban and Erdogan.
In summary, much would have been the same without Trump’s presence. However, important things would have been different, and the world would have been better off if Trump had met his long-overdue demise in October 2020. Life in the United States would have been far, far better.
A Trumpless world cannot happen soon enough, no matter which timeline it occurs in. It would be the single most positive development that could occur, had it been in 2020 or now.