So I watched Gordon Brown throw in the towel on TV today.
And then, later on, I had a chance to read a multitude of flawed commentary on the election by US observers who should know better-but don’t-draw conclusions based on the paradigm of US experience.
Britain’s election was about Britain-and it’s unique set of circumstances in Europe. Talking about how Obama “severed” the special relationship is to bluntly ignore the fact that our interests and the interests of Britain came out of alignment many years before. It may be only now that American voters are waking up to that fact. British voters recognized it a long time ago.
It is important to set a few myths to rest.
1) It’s all Obama’s fault that the special relationship is changed. Not true. While it may be true that Obama and his handlers were in-artful towards Gordon Brown in their early visits-he’s tried to make up for it since. And that line of thinking ignores one really important event that did more than any other to fracture “the special relationship”-which even then- was on life support. The Iraq War. British voters are predominately opposed to it. And have been since 2003. At the time of the election, 63% of the British voters felt Tony Blair had allowed Bush to mislead him-and Great Britain into the war-and some 37 percent of people believe that Mr. Blair should be put on trial for going to war with Iraq.
The truth is-the US /British relationship has been going downhill since 1956, and it accelerated in the period 1995-2010. Like two ships that start apart on a 2-3 degree course change, the distance of separation only becomes obvious as you go down the road a while. In 1956 the US helped screw itself and Britain by failing to support them in the Middle East -and in the ’90s, through its rampant embrace of globalization and outsourcing work from traditional locations, it created the pre-conditions that allowed economic damage to both the US and Britain to come home to roost. The economic change brought about by globalization and technological advances is not creating the happy, unified world of progress its promoters keep promising. Instead, it is splitting regions within nations that are entirely part of the global market from those being left behind.
Britain, caught between its need to be part of Europe and its real desire to maintain a distinct, historically British character, is on the front lines of this struggle. And it’s been coming on for a long time.
2) Conservatives are winning around the world. If they are, it’s not because they are trying to be like American Conservatives. Cameron’s party won because it moved to the center and even then it did not get a clear cut majority. Now that is a lesson today’s Republicans could learn, but won’t.
Cameron’s genius was to accept that the future of conservatism lies in winning over moderately progressive voters in the classes doing reasonably well in this new economic world. In his post-election statement offering to form a governing alliance with the Liberal Democrats, he began by declaring victory for “a new, modern Conservative Party,” a socially concerned, open-minded and tolerant band you don’t have to be ashamed of supporting.
Cameron understands — as many Republicans in the United States seem not to — that conservatism needs to sand off its rough edges and present itself as a stabilizing, unifying force.
In other words, put the stupid signs and the tri-corner hats in the closets. Simply relying on the stupidity of the average American voter is not an effective strategy. Elections are about swaying the voters in the middle. Cameron understood that-tea partiers do not. Fat, angry, and stupid is no way to go through life, son.
3) It is all about fiscal conservatism, tax cuts, and spending cuts. Not really. Otherwise, the Tories would have won a clear majority. The simple truth is -that life for the average British citizen has gotten worse in the past ten years-not better. And it was Labor holding the reins. And even at that Labor still won in many areas they were expected to lose. “In parts of the country that have never shared in the great metropolitan prosperity around London, mistrust of the Conservatives still runs deep.” Inequality in the United Kingdom is now higher than at any point since records began. Furthermore-both parties ran on the idea of austerity measures are going to be necessary and like American politicians, they declined to give any specifics. Cameron could actually end up in the position of the Democrats in the US-faced by an opposition whose only word will be no-and if he cuts things voters really care about could find himself back out on the street in front of 10 Downing Street. Serious budget cuts are a losing proposition electorally and the Conservatives will try to delay making serious choices as long as possible. Especially since they know they can fall- if the Liberal Democrats decide to bolt the coalition.