Futenma Follies

I am surprised to see how little play, the election of Susumu Inamine has gotten here in the United States. I realize that the election of Scott Brown is the greatest event short of the second coming-but folks ought to maybe pay some attention.

Because the whole apple-cart of the Defense Realignment in Japan just may be getting ready to tip over:

Inamine’s victory will make it less likely that Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama will seek to abide by the 2006 accord to relocate the air base to the Henoko area at Camp Schwab.

“I want to convey the will of the Nago residents to the central and prefectural governments” by passing a resolution at the city assembly, Inamine, 64, said after beating the incumbent, who had expressed a willingness to accept the relocation plan.

“So many military bases are concentrated in Okinawa. I expect the government to examine national security as an issue for the whole country, rather than seeking an alternative relocation site (for the Futenma facility) within Okinawa,” he said.

Which ought to prove interesting -since the US says its that deal, or nothing.

What’s going to happen?

Well that is a good question. My own personal opinion is that Japan has the stronger hand here-for a wide variety of reasons. One, they know the US is now on a development track in Guam that will be difficult politically and economically to undo. Second-despite what your friends in the USAF may say-there is room on Kadena to house more aircraft there. The amount of real estate the USAF maintains at its bases in Japan, compared to what the Navy and Marines have is just obscene. And the Japanese know it.

Nonetheless, there are still some cards the US can play. For one thing-it could announce that it is going to unilaterally halt the movement of Carrier Air Wing Five to Iwakuni. That would free up a bunch of money-while still leaving Japan on the hook to finish the new runway at Iwakuni. The movement of  the air wing to Iwakuni was a stupid move anyway-and it actually would be to the US’s advantage not to go through with it.

The US would still have the bone of moving the 8000 Marines to Guam however-and the dangling prospect of an F-18 one day dropping in on Yamato Station-it might scare enough folks that they reconsider the idea of stonewalling an alternate site. Especially since,  otherUS  denizens have designs on facilities at Atsugi.  Especially the scum sucking P-3 guys up in Misawa, who where edged out of their effort to take over what was never theirs in 2003. ( The tawdry story of how the P-3 guys screwed up my former place of employ is a separate post in and of itself. Screw you Grunie! ).

Nonetheless, the reality will remain, the US needs bases in Japan more than the Japanese need them.

It ought to be interesting to watch how this dance plays out.

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