I am surprised to see how little play, the election of Susumu Inamine has gotten here in the United States. I realize that the election of Scott Brown is the greatest event short of the second coming-but folks ought to maybe pay some attention.
Because the whole apple-cart of the Defense Realignment in Japan just may be getting ready to tip over:
Inamine’s victory will make it less likely that Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama will seek to abide by the 2006 accord to relocate the air base to the Henoko area at Camp Schwab.
“I want to convey the will of the Nago residents to the central and prefectural governments” by passing a resolution at the city assembly, Inamine, 64, said after beating the incumbent, who had expressed a willingness to accept the relocation plan.
“So many military bases are concentrated in Okinawa. I expect the government to examine national security as an issue for the whole country, rather than seeking an alternative relocation site (for the Futenma facility) within Okinawa,” he said.
Which ought to prove interesting -since the US says its that deal, or nothing.
What’s going to happen?
Well that is a good question. My own personal opinion is that Japan has the stronger hand here-for a wide variety of reasons. One, they know the US is now on a development track in Guam that will be difficult politically and economically to undo. Second-despite what your friends in the USAF may say-there is room on Kadena to house more aircraft there. The amount of real estate the USAF maintains at its bases in Japan, compared to what the Navy and Marines have is just obscene. And the Japanese know it.
Nonetheless, there are still some cards the US can play. For one thing-it could announce that it is going to unilaterally halt the movement of Carrier Air Wing Five to Iwakuni. That would free up a bunch of money-while still leaving Japan on the hook to finish the new runway at Iwakuni. The movement of the air wing to Iwakuni was a stupid move anyway-and it actually would be to the US’s advantage not to go through with it.
The US would still have the bone of moving the 8000 Marines to Guam however-and the dangling prospect of an F-18 one day dropping in on Yamato Station-it might scare enough folks that they reconsider the idea of stonewalling an alternate site. Especially since, otherUS denizens have designs on facilities at Atsugi. Especially the scum sucking P-3 guys up in Misawa, who where edged out of their effort to take over what was never theirs in 2003. ( The tawdry story of how the P-3 guys screwed up my former place of employ is a separate post in and of itself. Screw you Grunie! ).
Nonetheless, the reality will remain, the US needs bases in Japan more than the Japanese need them.
It ought to be interesting to watch how this dance plays out.
Not seeing it.
The nips want us gone as do the Koreans. I’m happy to oblige. We’re down to one BCT in Korea and less than that in Japan. Don’t you think we should end this occupation as rapidly as we end our occupation Iraq and Afghanistan? Surely enough is enough.
Let’s leave the Japs and Koreans to their own devices without the crutch of the American military to blame stuff on.
Skippy, not sure if you heard this but CTF 72 is moving back to Atsugi from Misawa pretty soon. Funny how everything goes around in circles.
Skippy, I am sure you saw this but for those who didn’t, this was in the Pacific Stars & Stripes on 10 Jan 10:
“MISAWA AIR BASE, Japan — The U.S. Navy is shifting some of its personnel in Japan to work at the newly created Maritime Fleet Coordination Center-Atsugi.
Two dozen Patrol and Reconnaissance Forces 7th Fleet (CTF-72) billets — including that of the commander — will be transferred from Misawa to Naval Air Facility Atsugi in coming months.
Navy officials said the moves will be staggered and will occur as those serving at Misawa prepare to leave their billets for new duty stations.
When Rear Adm. James Grunewald — who also commands Task Force 57 and Fleet Air Western Pacific — leaves Misawa later this summer, his relief will move directly to Atsugi.”
Link to the article:
http://www.stripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=67336
Oh I am very aware of it-it is what the bastards at CTF 72 have wanted for five years now. What is really sad-as my spies at CFWP tell me-is that those assholes have lost sight of the key thing the P-3 guys agreed to was that the two staffs have different reporting chains and normally the COS at CFWP is senior to the 72 one. These jerks are showing up and thinking they can tell CFWP what to do.
It took them ten years to accomplish-when Admiral Kelly was CNFJ he got it-and told them that they had made their bed and now they would have to lie in it. P-3 guys are like government employees, they simply out lasted him.
CTF-72 is not coming “back” to Atsugi-they were never there in the first place.
Can you tell this hits a nerve? 🙂 Grunie is a snake in the grass and always has been. Pass it on to him.
I actually agree with Curtis on this.
Korea has a top notch Army/AirForce and a small but potent Aegis Class Destroyers and destroyers lights. More than enough to handle the NK Navy.
Time to get out of Korea.
If we did leave Korea-then in theory we have no reason to be in Japan. Except the US needs a port faclity somewhere on that side of the dateline. Convince the PI that we should be back-AND homeport some ships in Singapore and Guam and we are back in business.
I’m ready to coordinate that move!
Speaking of PI..whatever happened to Subic?
There were some grandiose plans back in the day…..
(and yes I know Angeles City is still rancourous and a punters dream, Bangkok light)
But based on ONLY what i saw on youtube, Fields ave, Angeles pales in comparison to the ladies of Soi Cowboy or Walking Street.
I’ve heard that they had a couple of failed attempts to start a tourist / industry scene. FEDEX pulled out of the PI in 2008. It had originally hoped to hub there-but they moved to Guanzhau
Guam will do well enough for this decade. Later we can look at putting a major naval/air base in Taiwan.
Care to elaborate how the Taiwan thing would work? We can’t even have an embassy there with out the CHICOMS whining.
Sure,
War is bad for business. China is now a business. In order to forestall war America is in the habit of putting garrisons into hot-spots in order to fend off war: Japan, Korea, Germany, you get my drift.
We’re just not going to play in the southern hemisphere. That leaves just 2 potential flash points a decade hence. China and the imminent Indo-Pakistan War IV. India will probably exterminate Pakistan and there’s naught to be done to stop it. China is looking more and more like one of those parodies of the fighter urging his mates to “hold me back!!!” I don’t think they want to fight. 10 years from now their economy will be so polluted and in the tank that they may need a valid reason to use against those within who urge the government to take drastic action and invade Taiwan. US being there should be enough.
When I hear talk about conflict with China I am reminded of that book a number of years ago when JAPAN was the king of the hill, economically. ‘The Coming War with Japan”..which, at the time, got a lot of media play.
Did that happen and I missed it?
The countries in the region are all for trade and since they know the US is backing them, they can play the ‘China Card” , like Korea, Thailand, even Japan.
The wild card, however is North Korea. It will fail as a state and it will be quite a mess. The human misery will be catastrophic.
Yea, but the difference is the US did not have a security treaty with China.
No more than the US has such a treaty with the Japs or Koreans. They’re not friends of ours.
But the US does have a Security Treaty with both nations. And-BTW, both nations pay for our troops being there. Most buildings in Japan on Yokouska were built with Japanese money-not American.
Both nations are stuffed to the brim with folks that hate the US and everything about the US. I enjoy hating them back. I really look forward to both of them discovering that their treaties mean nothing with a democratic president who sells everybody down the river.
Our forces in Japan are an occupation force left over from a war we finished 65 years ago. Our teeny tiny force in Korea is a leftover of the Cold War and let’s be honest. The norks parade magnificently, like the French, but couldn’t fight their way out of a wet paper bag.
I don’t believe the Japanese hate the US, my experience says just the opposite. Not understand the US? Now that is a different thing entirely. But then again-I don’t understand the US either.