It will be interesting to watch the chattering class over the next couple of days as the reactions, both positive and negative, flow into Obama’s speech. I did not get to see the whole thing-there was no way I was getting up at 4 am. I have seen clips repeatedly over the evening today. I also got to pass by the TV fixed on Fox News in the anteroom this day at lunch.
I have mixed feelings about his approach. I think he’s doing the right thing-and he is capitalizing on a chance to drive wedges between the ideological fanatics and the rest of the Arab world. He will be more effective than his predecessor-because he is starting early I think. Bush actually said many of the same things Obama said today, albeit less effectively. The problem was though, that by his previous actions and words, no one could believe Bush was doing anything but going through the motions. Furthermore, its hard to “build a bridge” to Arabs when you unilaterally invade one of the largest nations in the region. Obama is right about Iraq being a war of choice-and its created a heck of a lot more problems than it has solved. The best thing we can do to improve our position in the region and elsewhere, is get the hell out of that fractured country and soon.
I also think that by trying to frame the speech in terms of reference that are familiar to Muslims-using some Arabic terms and quoting from the Koran was also a good way to start down the road of trying to persuade the rest of the nations in the region that he is different than his predecessor and actually committed to being an honest broker between the two sides. Bush’s credibility as an honest broker was shot-because, rightly or wrongly, many Arabs felt Bush was giving Israel a free pass. Obama understands that regardless of the correctness of the idea, many Arabs felt Israel had been doing something criminal to the Palestinians, and they can’t understand why the international community condones it. I’m not of that opinion, because the Palestinians brought a lot of grief on themselves by rejecting opportunities for peace. Then again-if I had my way-Britain would still have the Mandate in Palestine.
Even if the getting the rubber to the road is more difficult than he portrays-he’s right to try. He seemed to me to be saying the right things. He defended democracy ( and contrary to what Limbaugh and the herd say-he did use the word: four times). He condemned Arab violence. He condemned Al Quaeda. He also reminded them of the fact that Israel is a reality-and NOTHING- they say or do can change that. So they better learn to live with it. And he was also right to point out that if we and the Israelis are committed to a two state solution-then the settlements in the other state need to stop. These are the right things to say.
And he gave the speech in Cairo. Which unlike what Mr Bush said-is the heart of the Arab world. Iraq is not and will never be. Bush’s failure to understand that-led us down the path to disaster. Egypt and Saudi Arabia are keys to the Middle East-not Baghdad.
My misgivings though, are not with what the President said. Its with my sure confidence , that given a chance-Arabs will screw up any good deal given to them. This speech could be the beginning of a constructive policy, and maybe we could finally, FINALLY, begin the path of disengaging from the open ended wars that the previous administration got us into. I have my doubts that it will though-because of the problems that exist at the heart of Arab society.
The other problem, is that I’m still not sure “two states” are possible in the area of Palestine. ( Or if you prefer-Eretz Yisrael). Having spent some time there, its for one main reason. The Israelis have all the good real estate. They are not going to give it up. And the Palestinians still have not shown themselves able to manage the property they do have.
Nor too-has the Arab world shown that they “really” support the Palestinians. If they had-they would have been more accepting of them into their societies during the diaspora period from 1967 onwards. They don’t really like them anymore than the Israelis do it seems sometimes. I’m never understood that.
Nonetheless-Obama is right to try. And if we take the pragmatic approach, and deal with the Arab world as it is-not as we wish it would be-then perhaps some progress can be made.
It certainly cannot be any worse than what we’ve tried for the previous eight years.