One of the most troubling aspects of the recent coverage of the election, is this tone that Obama has already got the election sewn up. If I were Obama I would be doing my damndest to squelch that kind of talk.
And if it were me-I sure as hell would not be doing this.
A huge stage is being constructed in Chicago’s Grant Park, where Obama hopes to declare victory before a cheering throng that could dwarf the one at the Democratic convention. Back then, “only” 80,000 fans were in attendance that night. This time, it could be hundreds of thousands in the park and its surroundings — closer to Berlin in July than Denver in August.
You think the so called “true blue conservatives” are assholes now? Wait till you see that after an election McCain wins-even if it is by just a nose. They will be insufferable.
And the obnoxious smiling face of Bill Kristol will be every where-claiming it was the whore that shall not be named who did it.
Plus, McCain winning this election is still a great possibility-one the Democrats ignore at their peril. Marc Ambinder sums it up well:
The Party knows how to turn out Republican voters in red states. The Democratic Party has no record of turning out sporadic Democratic voters in presidential years in red states. It is not reasonable to assume, therefore, that Democrats can really turn out the voters they say they will, while Republicans have a record of turning out habitual Republican voters. How can Democrats build good and accurate voter lists in these red states?
Take Indiana: Gov. Mitch Daniels leads his Democratic opponent, Jill Long Thompson, by a healthy margin. Can you imagine Mitch Daniels voters choosing Obama?
Obama’s in trouble in Pennsylvania. Why else is Ed Rendell begging Obama to return there?
In 2006, the Republican base was depressed after “Macaca” and Jim Webb still only barely managed a victory there.
The GOP will spend $70 million on GOTV in the next 13 days.
Obama isn’t breaking 50% in Ohio and Florida. It’s hard to imagine a big shift to him in the final ten days, when the mind is concentrated, when imponderables come into play.
Colorado is tough… but Pennsylvania is doable.
Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri will all revert to partisan form. Already, McCain’s campaign has factored in census + 1 turnout for African Americans, and there are plausible scenarios under which McCain wins.
Several polls — including McCain’s internal polls — show that some white male voters who broke away from McCain [ed note: but did not support Obama] are coming back to McCain’s fold.
Oh, and all this talk of Barack Obama leading in the early vote? So did John Kerry.
Never underestimate the ability of Democrats to screw up a good thing.