Now I admit, that I never really gave T. Boone Pickens much thought before this. All I knew was that he funded the Swiftboat ads, was obscenely rich, while I was not. So unless he was going to give me some of that money, there was not much his opinion really mattered much to me.
I think from the start it is important to note that Pickens has a financial stake in this, and if wind power takes off he’s going to make a lot of money. But that’s Ok because if Arabs are not making money off me buying gas, I benefit.
Pickens plan centers on several things-and for the most part I agree with his points:
America uses too much oil and too much comes from overseas.
As a result of high oil prices, we are transferring too many dollars to nations who do not deserve the use of them. “Projected over the next 10 years the cost will be $10 trillion — it will be the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind.”
Like me, he believes in the theory of peak oil:
World oil production peaked in 2005. Despite growing demand and an unprecedented increase in prices, oil production has fallen over the last three years. Oil is getting more expensive to produce, harder to find and there just isn’t enough of it to keep up with demand.
Pickens believes that there are technology alternatives. Not suprisingly a lot of them revolve around around wind power-an area Pickens is heavily invested in. However that does not necessarily mean he is wrong. After all he as made 3 billion dollars playing his hunches over the years.
By expanding wind power for electricity it will free up natural gas, which can then go in cars. Less cars burning oil means less oil needed to be bought. He argues that it will create lots of American jobs-I am not so sure about that, because the companies that make the turbines can still outsource the work overseas- however the central theme makes sense.
EXCEPT………
People still don’t have any way to get from here to there-for the most part-except by taking a car. And that is where I worry Picken’s logic breaks down for the long haul. As I pointed out before in a previous post-we still don’t have any other alternatives to get home from the bar.
My big fear is that the US can make a decent change in the pattern of fuel purchased to produce electricity, but without doing something to make the US other than, what the S.O. calls it, a car society-any gains will be for naught.
So I would add something to his plan-a commitment by both Federal and State governments as well as industry, to build, finance, and interlink a modern rail system and improved public transportation. I’m not sure exactly how to do that-but I also believe there are places where it would be a more practical alternative to air transportation. Like on short haul routes that are too short for big jets, but too long to drive. Better to ride a high speed train than ride one of the small planes used now. I think in the West and in the NE corridor, high speed trains could make a real difference. Certainly my trip home would have been different if I could have avoided the commuter leg out of Philadelphia this week.
(Long story).
Now I am biased about train travel, having lived in a country where it was reliable and plentiful. However one has to realize that by reducing car and auto consumption of fuel we all win. And we still can enjoy a good lifestyle. Japan and Europe have proven that.
Now maybe Pickens is right- natural gas will take off for automobiles-but I wonder. Will it make a Mustang go from 0 to 60 in 4 seconds? If not, how many people will buy it?
Still he’s right-we’ve got to do something about our oil addiction. Because it is at the heart of most of the US economic troubles.