New Years Eve………

All in all a pretty good day today. I had the day off which is always nice, the S.O. took a break from cleaning long enough to do some retail therapy, and I worked out for a good 45 minutes on the treadmill-IPOD playing- channeling my thoughts and anger into a brisk pace and some observations for this evening.

I was even able to extort this out of the S.O. by playing the sympathy card:

“She got more, and better,  Christmas presents than I did!”

Whatever works. Sorry Phib, I like David Halberstam’s books and I want to read this one.

Speaking of Christmas presents-I seem to have hit the mark with the IPOD for her. By my count I have now uploaded over 1000 songs for her and she listens to it all the time with the speaker set up I arranged. I’m having a devil of a time teaching her to use I-tunes on her own-or for that matter trying to get her to sync her own damn IPOD-her eyes just gloss over when I try to explain it. It’s nice to have a purpose in life I guess. Suffice it to say,  her taste in music and mine-are more than a little different.

<——————————————————————————————————->

The Red and White show is on! (kou-haku-uta-ga-sen)

They just had probably 70 kids on stage dancing and doing the Bottom Biting Bug song. This year like last year we have struck a compromise of sorts. She gets to watch 3 hours of  the show then we get to go to a countdown party and bring in the New Years in proper fashion-with copious amounts of beer, wine and champagne. As I pointed out last year, I guess that’s progress of a sort, although the little voice inside of me keeps telling me I would be happier here or even here. As I have had to do in previous years, I just squashed the voice and moved on.

Tomorrow we will be in Tokyo for a a couple of days to enjoy life,  before the reality that will be 2008 comes crushing down upon us.  One way or another I will have another job by the end of it-exactly where and with whom is still up to events to be determined. Anybody wants to offer helpful suggestions, contacts or anything approaching a job offer in (Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Bangkok, Manila, Seoul, or Kuala Lumpur)-please e-mail soonest!

<——————————————————————————————————->

The end of the year is the time for both reflection and prognostication-I don’t really have much of either. I would encourage any and everyone to go here and read about the Top 10 stories that got little or no attention  but will have an impact on a lot of people-especially Americans.

2008 will be the last year of the Bush administration- Thanks be to God! 385 days till Bush gets to join his predecessor on the list of useless elder “statesmen”.  One observation that I can make this New Years Eve is that one reason the Presidential campaign has started so early and become the colossal farce that it is -is because both parties know that GWB needs to go. He’s overstayed his welcome by at least 4 years. Problem is, nobody knows exactly what they want to replace him with. Do you want a thumper , a jumper, or a humper?

Normally I would prefer the latter, but this year the only Republican candidate I like is McCain. Despite the fact that he is wrong on the war in Iraq, and his affection for Senator Quisling  Lieberman makes my skin crawl; he’s the only candidate that I genuinely respect. I also truly believe that he would never have allowed a guy like Rumsfeld to do the damage that he did to the armed forces.

(And its not that he is really wrong about the ability of American forces to achieve military objectives-its his faith in the Iraqi people that is sadly misplaced. The difference between me and the good Senator is that I feel whatever debt we supposedly owed the Iraqis was more than repaid long ago. It is time for them to stop depending on the Americans to provide security, and run their own country.   McCain being more of an optimist-still likes them.  Wait till he’s President and they double cross him too…………)

Of course the problem will be if McCain wins the nomination-there will be no end of “true believers” who will just never forgive him for not being a “real conservative”, and boneheads like Michelle Malkin will never forgive him for McCain- Feingold. Hey Miss Pinay! I’ll give you a hint. One of you is wrong and it ain’t McCain.

On the Democratic side-their inability to accomplish anything. Or successfully oppose the President on any number of his many flaws and bad decisions. Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi have screwed this pooch so bad-that it will be tough for any Democrat to campaign against just about any of the Republican nominees. If the Dems nominate Hillary-they will suffer a stinging defeat in the fall. As I have said before-paraphrasing Winston  Churchill, “If {Hillary} were to run against the devil, I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons. ”

<——————————————————————————————————->

Some other thoughts about 2008 and the election. One problem on both sides of the aisle will be the target audience the parties will need to woo. The US election of 2008 will be decided by voters who earn between 30,000 to 60,000 dollars per year, have families, and are having to make tough choices to stay afloat economically. These folks have real concerns about the economy, the availability of affordable housing, automobiles, gasoline, and other commodities. The Republicans and to a lesser degree most of the Democrats are acting like its still “morning in America’, and acting like Ronald Reagan with out a booming economy to back up their claims.  Problem is, it is 2008-not 1988-and there are some real issues that lie just under the surface. If you want to know one reason why Edwards is even semi-successful this year, it is because his anger resonates with folks who are not getting a fair break. While the rich get richer. ( Of course Edwards for all his populist talk,  is one of the rich bastards himself-which is why I could not vote for him. But I like it when he attacks some of the hypocrisy that is conservative America today).

<——————————————————————————————————->

Overseas, here is what I see. In Iraq, troop levels will do one of two things: a) remain constant at about 120,000 or b) be reduced to about 60,000 starting the reduction right about the time the Presidential campaign kicks into high gear.  People will continue to tout the surge’s progress and the cost of that progress, 899 American lives lost in 2007,  will be downplayed as news outlets highlight how the casualty numbers are going down. It remains to be seen if this is simply a return to a baseline level of violence, or if the Iraqis are really starting to put their feuds behind them.  The track record of the Iraqis to date does not promote a lot of optimism.  Even if all violence stopped tomorrow-Iraq will never be the “great example of democracy” to the Middle East. It will simply be another Arab country with a some rich people, a lot more who aren’t and an economy where Filipino’s, Indonesians and Bangladeshis do all the really hard work. Most likely it will be a bigger version of Lebanon-a once great nation that descended into chaos.  Churchill sums Iraq up for me pretty well ( Smart man that Churchill!): Writing to Lloyd George, Churchill, frustrated after all the bloodshed in World War I, asked, “Why are we compelled to go on pouring armies and treasure into these thankless deserts?”

The worst part is that while it is clear that Al Qaeda has been marginalized and they have quit the field in Iraq ( for now), the corrosive effects of their ideas has spread out from its hole to more countries in the Middle East.  The United States has plugged this particular hole in the dam-while doing so cracks are developing elsewhere. Pakistan, Algeria, Lebanon, and in Egypt.

And in Afghanistan? More of the same. NATO will continue its ISAF effort, the US will demand more of Europe,  and Europe will not contribute any more than they have already given. Call it buyer’s remorse for getting sucked into not one,  but two conflicts along side the US. The solutions in Afghanistan are political and economic. More reconstruction needs to be done.  And as in Iraq the central government needs to get its act together. Don’t hold your breath.

<——————————————————————————————————>

Closer to home, I believe Japan will turn its attention inward and focus on domestic issues. The voters have pretty much told Fukuda-san that’s what they want. I also, and this affects me personally, believe this will be the year Japan wakes up and smells the coffee on the bill of goods it got sold on US defense realignment in Japan. Both sides are going to realize that they came up with some really stupid ideas regarding force structure and base movements-in particular the notion of moving CVW-5 over to Iwakuni-and they will spend a great part of the year discussing and disagreeing on who will pay for what. The US will want the Japanese to pay for everything, the Japanese will want to use their money for other things ( like solving the pension crisis and postal reform).  It will interesting to watch-if not productive for either side.

<——————————————————————————————————>

Finally, I think the sports year will be disappointing for me. My greatest hope is that China gets its ass kicked at the Olympics-both inside the stadium and outside of it.  Nothing would be better than some type of event that exposes Hu Jin Tao and the Chinese government as the worthless fraud that it is.

In baseball, I’m rooting for Barry Bonds to get convicted-of anything.  That said, I think pro baseball is going to have to go through some real soul searching about its owners and how truly out of sync the management of the game has become.

I’m also pretty sure the Cubs and the Pirates will disappoint me for yet another year.

As for football, either kind, I have no predictions.

<——————————————————————————————————->

Gotta go to the party. One thing I think is for certain, 2008 is going to be a very interesting year. Change is a coming-for me and for the world-whether either one of us wants it or not. Happy New Year!