Did not see that coming………..

 Harry Reid may be wishing he could move to Japan. I hope not.

However, he may want to think about trading barbecue for sushi,  since it seems that over here in Nihon  being stubborn can be a way to get what you want :

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose year-old government has suffered a string of damaging scandals and a humiliating electoral defeat, has told ruling party leaders he wants to resign, news reports said Wednesday.

National broadcaster NHK said Abe made the announcement in a morning meeting with ruling party leaders, citing unidentified top officials of the Liberal Democratic Party. Other TV networks carried similar reports.

Abe spokesman Hiroshi Suzuki, deputy Cabinet secretary, said he was aware of the reports but he could not immediately confirm them.

The reports come after Abe’s scandal-scarred government lost control of the House of Councillors in July 29 elections.

The immediate cause of his resignation was a fight over renewing the special Anti-terror law, which is due to expire on 1 November. That law gives the Maritime Self Defense force authority to operate ships in the Indian Ocean and provide refueling services to coalition ships from the US, Britain and Pakistan. Failure to renew the law would be the equivalent of defunding the effort and would force the Japanese ships to return to Japanese waters.

The rejection by Democratic Party of Japan President Ichiro Ozawa of Abe’s request to meet “over continuation of Japans Maritime Self-Defense Force’s refueling operations in the Indian Ocean in support of the Global War on Terrorism”, is believed to have shown Abe that there was no way the DPJ was going to compromise.

The S.O. called me this afternoon at work with the news. She was not just happy, but down right, positively giddy, about the fact that Abe-san was leaving. Her level of joy was about the same as mine would be upon hearing that my ex had been run over by a speeding bus, or if Pat Schroeder had taken a header off of a 40 story building. You know the feeling-one of overwhelming joy. This is a woman who did not vote in two years, but in July stood outside in line in the rain, to make sure she could cast her vote for Minshuto ( Democratic Party of Japan) and against  Abe-san. She has vowed to vote against them again in the election this fall.  An election that is now virtually ensured by Abe’s resignation.

I’m outta here!

In the preceding video Abe is announcing his intention to resign. He says that he thought about it long and hard and asked himself what to do. He says that he came to the conclusion that the law could only be passed if he resigned. The caption in the lower right part of the video says “Prime Minster Abe’s resignation-the reasons explained” in Japanese.

There is a theory being put forth by some in LDP (Abe’s party) that he was doing it out of a sense of duty-by removing himself from the discussion it will remove the controversy over his inability to choose competent Cabinet Ministers. He’s lost 5 of them-one committed suicide-in less than 12 months.

Later on, some sources claimed that Abe’s health also contributed to the decision. His “health problems” are unspecified:

One thing that he did not explain in the news conference was his health condition,” Yosano told reporters. He said he could not say more about the problem for privacy reasons.

Yosano said Abe’s health worsened after visiting Indonesia, Malaysia, and India in late August, although the condition didn’t require him to be hospitalized.

He said Abe’s health problems kept him in constant agony as he tried to perform his job.

Worst part is, the “refueling mission” or kyuyuukatsudo as it is known in Japanese (Still can’t get Japanese characters to work in Word Press-any ideas from the gallery?) will probably not be renewed. DPJ is smelling blood in the water. They have been out of control for so long, and have only been in the position of saying “no” for so long-kind of like the US Democrats-they figure they have nothing to lose by sticking it to LDP. Especially since in the mind of Citizen Sato, the refueling mission is equated with the war in Iraq. Iraq is extremely unpopular here and one should remember that it was public opinion that forced the Japanese government to with draw Japanese ground forces from around Samarra in Iraq.  

It will also be a blow to efforts to get the Constitution changed to allow Japan to take a more active stance in its own defense and support of US efforts in the Pacific and elsewhere. To most folks in the US Navy the refueling deal seems like a no-brainer, an easy way for Japan to provide support without actually putting troops in harms way. Its Navy is very professional and good at doing this mission.  Thinking among most Navy folks here was that , before today, Abe would eventually win. Especially given the show of support he got from the US during the recently concluded APEC summit.

The S.O. could have told them they were wrong. She loathes the man. Her dislike of him makes me look like a died in the wool GWB supporter by contrast.  He has Bush like approval ratings in the 20’s. Together, as pictured here, they still just barely break 50% in terms of a positive approval rating. The basic thinking of most Japanese is that Koizumi gave Abe a good deal, and he f##ked it away. Add to that the series of scandals and Abe’s poor reaction to them-as well as Japan’s looming pension crisis in a few years- and its hard to see how he held on this long.

That said, most commentators think his timing sucked. In particular his backing down so quickly from a fight that he picked, is more than a bit unseemly. It makes him look like a wimp.

Then again, it could mean he actually listened to public opinion. Pity his unpopular American counterpart doesn’t bother to do that.