Far East Cynic

When you make changes in haste-they seldom turn out to be good ones. What I am about to chronicle in this post is an example of a change made by these guys-that is 100% at odds with what they supposedly want from those they inflicted it on.

In their haste to show their rotund and ill-informed followers how manly they could be about cutting the federal budget, several really stupid cuts were made-that will end up costing the government more in the long run. The Reed Amendment to HR1 would do away with compatibility pay matches for Foreign Service officers serving overseas. Reed , an asshole Congressmen from New York’s 29th district proposed this as stopping “an automatic pay raise” to FSO’s when they leave DC and move to their posts overseas. Besides the obvious grandstanding of a cut that is in fact not a cut-it is a bad idea and counterproductive to getting the kind of people America wants in its foreign service.

The Federal Employees Pay Comparability Act of 1990 was adopted as a way to reduce the government-wide disparity between the public and private sectors and is a basic component of salary for all civilian Federal employees, based on annual survey data collected by the Department of Labor. As a result of this law, every federal government employee working in the United States received “locality pay” as part of their salary. Until 2009, the only United States government civilian employees who did not receive this part of their salary were entry-level and mid-level Foreign Service personnel serving their country overseas. All others, including senior level State Department officers, and other agencies represented overseas, such as CIA officers under State Department cover, DOJ and DHS, have locality pay factored into their base salary.

Locality pay for Foreign Service personnel and other federal employees serving in Washington, D.C. is now approximately 25%.  Under the law prior to 2009, Foreign Service personnel serving abroad sacrificed this part of their salaries and took large pay cuts to their base salaries.  Those posted in Washington earned more money than colleagues posted in Pakistan, Yemen, and Beirut to name a few.  As a result, because retirement packages are based upon base pay (including “locality pay”), Foreign Service officers representing their country abroad received smaller retirement packages than their colleagues who stayed in Washington. This was not sustainable and in 2009 a bi-partisan solution was found to correct this policy problem. Closing the pay gap is not a pay raise — it is a correction of a 17- year-old unintended inequity in the worldwide Foreign Service pay schedule—an inequity that grew every year.

Today thousands of Foreign Service employees serve in hardship assignments around the globe, which now constitute nearly 60% of all posts thanks to: the fact that there are too many nations and a lot of them are basket cases and because that was what was stated as a goal for the state department. One of the persistent raps against the state department is that they are doing enough to support the War on Terror.  As business model-handing someone a 24% percent pay cut when they complete FSO training is a bad way to encourage that behavior. There has been strong bipartisan recognition that it is time to invest in diplomacy and development.  Penalizing Foreign Service employees – specifically those of us at the junior and mid-level – whose mission is to serve overseas to advance and protect our national interests by cutting their base pay undervalues the importance of the Foreign Service.

Now I have personal experience with folks who work with and in US Embassies. As a part of my stint in Romania last year-I was embedded in the Embassy splitting my time between it and the Romanian Ministry of Defense. The State Department personnel I worked with were very professional-put in some pretty decent hours and were always courteous and helpful to the things that I needed to get done.

I also have another kind of experience with Foreign Service Officers-the kind I think guys like Reed just don’t appreciate.

When my sister was killed in Panama back in 1997-it was a Consular Officer, working in American Citizen services in the Panamanian Embassy who helped our family get through a very rough time. He went above and beyond what he was required to do-to make sure all of the logistical arrangements and the other ancillary things that happen in an incident of that kind were handled with grace and dignity. As result-I did not have to get on a plane and fly down there, such was the totality of the work that he did. He has our undying gratitude-and he certainly earned every penny of his salary that month.

And in the end -it really does not save a whole lot of money, especially when you hold it up to the amount we are wasting supporting three wars in places we have no business being.

I have written my Senators and asked them to ensure this gets deleted from the continuing resolution. You should too.  America gets talented people to apply for the Foreign Service, the selection process is long and competitive, and contrary to popular belief-they do not all start out as fresh college graduates. Some actually transition from other careers later in life-usually taking a pay cut to do so because they want to serve their country. The country should incentivize the service-and enjoy the results. You get what you pay for.

They should have told me earlier-there is an alternative to Body Pump. Jimmy Kimmel’s HO BO!

Tomorrow is Oscar night. Here is a compilation of every classic movie line that has been repeated by most of us at one time or another. At 10 minutes plus, it is kind of long, but worth the time to view.

It’s show time!

Or why Johnny does not know a damn thing about the world.

Also known as, “The world according to Glenn Beck and Michelle Malkin”:

For learning Hiragana.

Now after 10+ years of struggling with the Japanese language-I remain convinced that starting with Romanji ( anglicized Japanese) is a bad way to go. A beginner in Nihongo should start by memorizing the Hiragana and Katakana alphabets first and then bit by bit learn Kanji with furigana (hiragana in parentheses over the Kanji). Starting with Romanji set me back a bit-way back when. Being in Alabama has set me back way back now.

Which is why I think this video from Danny Choo is pretty good:

“The difference between a democracy and a dictatorship is that in a democracy you vote first and take orders later; in a dictatorship you don’t have to waste your time voting.”-

Charles Bukowski

For those who take the time to research it,  several things about the Wisconsin governor’s battles with his public sector unions are clearly evident:

1)      This about more than simply resolving a funding issue.

2)      It is part of an orchestrated strategy-and the conductor directing the music is not located in the Madison State house.

3)      Republican governors, for the most part, appear determined to make an ideological point, even if it costs their state(s) a great deal.

Now that last bullet is probably key, and says more about what has happened to the Republican party than anything else. In today’s intellectually challenged GOP-it is more important to pander to the ill informed and uncaring lower 30% than do anything to benefit the majority of the citizenry. In that regard they are perhaps bringing Bukowski’s quote true-moreso than we realize.

“But the public sector unions are greedy and they will bankrupt us in the long run” , you say, “they are getting a much better deal than the rest of us and its not fair-they should have to sacrifice too.”

Not really. For the most part public sector employees make less-and they know that coming in the door.

The image of public workers as sitting fat and happy while those in the private sector struggle has proved potent. But its accuracy is open to wide debate, and not just among politicians of different stripes. “You ask 10 economists about this, and you’re get 12 different answers,” says Keith Bender, an economics professor at the University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee.

So do public union workers, while enjoying better job security, actually receive richer pay and benefit packages than those in the private sector?

Comparable Jobs?

Bender is one of the economists who argue in a recent study that public workers actually receive less compensation in combined wages and benefits than those in comparable jobs in the private sector.

Key words, they say: “Comparable jobs.”

In a study last year for the National Institute for Retirement Security and the Center for State and Local Government Excellence, Bender and co-author John Heywood, also a UWM economics professor, assert that wages for typical state workers are 11 percent less than those in the private sector with comparable education and in comparable jobs. Local workers earn 12 percent less, they say.

When the cost of benefits is factored in, Bender and Heywood say that their calculations show that the so-called total compensation for state workers is 6.8 percent less than for those in the private sector; local workers’ total compensation is 7.4 percent less.

That too says something less than complimentary about our ill informed citizenry-rather than try to improve the lot of the private sector, it’s more important to engage in a race to the bottom to see which corporations can screw their employees the worst. Got it.  It’s against your own best interests, you do understand-but I understand how you feel.

Most of what you “know” about the public sector unions in Wisconsin and Satan’s Scott Walker’s efforts to destroy unions is not correct. Not even wildly close.  Let’s review what the governor is really proposing.

Walker’s proposal can basically be described a three-fold program to revamp the way Wisconsin provides public services and in the process radically reduce, if not destroy, any semblance of a social safety net. His plan involves three big things:

1)      Defund and delegitimize public sector workers. Both in terms of legal standing with the state government and in public perception. Denying them fundamental rights that have been a part of the labor landscape for decades is a part of that plan. As a result-he will have a free hand in reducing their benefits and reducing their health care coverage.

2)      Privatize government assets-this to be done through the use of no-bid contracts to reward those who support the governor and his party.  It gives him a free hand to avoid public interest checks and balances designed into the state laws and the Wisconsin State Constitution.

3)     Cut benefits for Wisconsin citizens- specifically by re-writing Medicaid rules to give the governor, not the legislature the power to write rules.  As a result, Governor Walker will be able to arbitrarily drop thousands of current beneficiaries. He is seeking nothing less than removing legislation from the process-to allow him to govern Medicaid by executive order.  Because this violates both the spirit and intent of the ACA-the second shoe to drop is to use these rules changes as basis to attack health care reform.

Pretty neat trick if he can pull it off. He claims he campaigned on this. There is only one problem with that statement-he didn’t. Scott Walker is essentially trying a form of bait and switch on the Wisconsin electorate. Fortnately , for the short term at least, a sizeable number of voters saw through the ruse and are now exercising the same rights their tri-corner hat wearing counterparts exercised last year. As John Cole noted: “That’s true if you forget that most teabagger protest was based on lies like death panels, while Walker really does want to bust unions, and that Walker never campaigned on ending collective bargaining, while Obama’s campaign made HCR a centerpiece. Also, too: those who are pissed about Democrats leaving the state as a form of filibuster can start complaining in earnest when those lawmakers run away every single time there’s a bill up for vote.”

When you crunch the numbers and look at it in light of existing practice elsewhere-the truth comes out a little different:

Economic nonsense is being reported as fact in most of the news reports on the Wisconsin dispute, the product of a breakdown of skepticism among journalists multiplied by their lack of understanding of basic economic principles.
Gov. Scott Walker says he wants state workers covered by collective bargaining agreements to “contribute more” to their pension and health insurance plans.

Accepting Gov. Walker’ s assertions as fact, and failing to check, created the impression that somehow the workers are getting something extra, a gift from taxpayers. They are not.

Out of every dollar that funds Wisconsin’ s pension and health insurance plans for state workers, 100 cents comes from the state workers.

How can that be? Because the “contributions” consist of money that employees chose to take as deferred wages – as pensions when they retire – rather than take immediately in cash. The same is true with the health care plan. If this were not so a serious crime would be taking place, the gift of public funds rather than payment for services.

Thus, state workers are not being asked to simply “contribute more” to Wisconsin’ s retirement system (or as the argument goes, “pay their fair share” of retirement costs as do employees in Wisconsin’ s private sector who still have pensions and health insurance). They are being asked to accept a cut in their salaries so that the state of Wisconsin can use the money to fill the hole left by tax cuts and reduced audits of corporations in Wisconsin.

The labor agreements show that the pension plan money is part of the total negotiated compensation. The key phrase, in those agreements I read (emphasis added), is: “The Employer shall contribute on behalf of the employee.” This shows that this is just divvying up the total compensation package, so much for cash wages, so much for paid vacations, so much for retirement, etc.

That, BTW is a model of many pension plans-not just Wisconsin’s.

Furthermore-and this seems to be continually forgotten, the union had already agreed to the increased contribution a long time ago.

What most people don’t know is that, until Scott Walker came along, Wisconsin public pensions were among the nation’s healthiest. It was a “national leader” in managing its long term liabilities and retiree health care. So if it was just about money-Gov Walker could have declared victory when the union agreed to his concessions.

Also ignored is the fact that Wisconsin was on track to actually run a surplus-at least it was till Walker rammed through a series of tax cuts to help a favored few-and create a deficit in Wisconsin’s budget.

But this is not about money in the long run-it’s about accomplishing every true believer in Teabagger land’s wet dream: the destruction of unions and the end of Medicaid. Taking to its core-this fight for Scott Walker and his supporters is about showing their enemies ( which is anyone who does not believe in their Darwinian vision of the future-symbolized by the unions) that they mean business and will not compromise. Its about shifting power and wealth into a select few hands.

The most disturbing parts of Walker’s legislation have gotten very little coverage. His bill would strip the legislature of any role in setting guidelines for the program leaving the power exclusively in the Governor’s hands.  Why? Because it gives the governor a free hand to slash Medicaid rolls to record lows. Even some of the Governor’s supporters will be hurt if this happens. Especially since-unless the ACA stays in place -many of them will not be able to obtain private insurance because they will have pre-existing conditions, and /or will not be able to afford the premiums of private insurance.  In the long run that raises everyone else’s premiums because of the added burdens they will impose upon our emergency room system.

And then there is the privatization. Privatizing cuts public supervision out of the process and invites skimming and poor service. For folks like Walker, this is a feature, not a flaw. Poor services leads to increasing distrust of government. Having already created an environment where it has become impossible to raise taxes-no matter what the circumstances-it’s the kind of negative feedback loop that favors Walker’s wealthy friends. After all it’s worked so well elsewhere:

Processing of welfare, food-stamp and Medicaid claims in Indiana was plagued with difficulties when the state outsourced the system to International Business Machines Corp. and Affiliated Computer Services Inc. two years ago. Indiana and former outsourcing partner IBM sued each other Thursday, May 13, the latest chapter in an increasingly sour relationship that went bad when the state decided last year to cancel an ambitious social services system. In October 2009, Gov. Mitch Daniels pulled the plug on Indiana’s 10-year, $1.6 billion outsourcing contract with IBM to streamline welfare eligibility in the state. Launched in 2007, the new system let citizens apply for welfare benefits online, in person or via telephone, and it implemented process changes designed to speed up and standardize eligibility determinations. Daniels called the concept—which drew criticism for high error rates and slow processing of eligibility requests—unworkable.

If you’re not willing to consider tax hikes to help balance the budget you’re just not serious about deficits, period. It’s just not possible to cut your way to a balanced budget while simultaneously slashing taxes for businesses and the wealthy. The myth that low taxes will lead to business investment and job creation is just that – a myth. These myths have wormed their way into the conservative psyche, just like the myth that lower taxes will generate higher revenue.

We’ll just skip the debate about the wisdom of draconian cuts during the middle of a severe recession shall we?

Now ask yourself this question-if ending collective bargaining for public sector unions is such a necessary tool for controlling costs, why then did the governor exempt Police and Firefighters?   In theory what should be good for one should be good for all.

To their credit-the police and the firefighters have seen through this smokescreen and have stood in support of the other unions. Perhaps they recognize that this is just round one and downstream , un- satiated elites will come for them too.

I think it is an interesting commentary on how low we have sunk as a society-that we have come to the point where teachers are viewed as evil and as the source of all of our problems. I, personally, have a hard time with that. I had some great teachers who had an effect on my life-without Miss Kaigler and Mrs. Holman I would never have gained any writing skills with the English language, or gained an appreciation for some of the great books of our century. They were part of a union-but they also cared about their students. Then again-I was lucky to live in a township with some pretty high property taxes that were plowed back into the schools. Of course this was before, Grover Norquist started whining about his property taxes. I’m a product of a public school system-and I turned out pretty well.

If this were solely about saving money-Walker would be playing his hand a lot differently. And he might have more support-even from union members (its a forgotten fact that the union vote is not monolithic, studies repeatedly confirm about 35-40% of union members vote Republican). If you simply believe Walkers talking points, one gets the idea that its about saving money. However-as the facts come out and people see his real agenda, they really don’t like it. Because I think, deep down they know that Walker and his buddies won’t stop there. “Pretty soon we will shoot someone you really care about-now give me those god damn detonators” (Obligatory Die Hard reference).

The polls back this up-especially when you break it down by income:

*Among those who make less than $24,000 annually, 74 percent oppose the proposal, versus only 14 percent who favor it.

* Among those who make $24,000 to $59,000, 63 percent oppose the proposal, versus only 33 percent who favor it.

* Among those who make $60,000 to $89,000, 53 percent oppose the proposal, versus only 41 percent who favor it.

* Among those who make $90,000 and up, 50 percent favor the proposal, versus 47 percent who oppose it.

Now unfortunately, I don’t think time is on the union’s side-Walker can wait them out; he can start laying them off. It will prove worthwhile though, if it can expose the real war on the middle class, that true blue conservative policies creates-and Scott Walker unwittingly laid that blueprint out for all to see. If that gets the Democratic party away from the two “F”‘s (Fags and Feminism) and back to economic issues-he may actually have done them a favor. Time will tell.

Yipee kay yay, motherf*ckers!

UPDATE:My Canadian Counterpart has his take up here.

I went to body pump after work tonight. Angie, who is actually a very good instructor, decided that we all needed extra beatings in anticipation of the upcoming weekend. Suffice it to say I was dragging ass by the time we got to the pushups and crunches. They suck!

I had begun a long post  about Wisconsin and the bait and switch tactics that Scott Walker is using, in concert with his other sick GOP governor buddies, to try complete the cruxifiction of the middle class. But that will have to wait till tomorrow.

However, I would like to steer you towards a mini-book I downloaded last night for my I-pad. It is called, The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All The Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History,Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better.

It is by a guy named Tyler Cowen and his central premise is both pessimistic and optimistic in the long term. His thesis is, that our tired old notion of American exceptionalism-something the poster child repeats again and again to the fat, lazy and ignorant specimens of Americana who adore him-just isn’t going to sustain the USA for either the short or the long term. Allen West’s dream of rerturning to McKinelyville will destroy the very people who elected him. Cowen makes no secret that for the short term at least, life for the middle class is going to get worse and worse:

America is in disarray and our economy is failing us. We have been through the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression, unemployment remains stubbornly high, and talk of a double-dip recession persists. Americans are not pulling the world economy out of its sluggish state — if anything we are looking to Asia to drive a recovery.Median wages have risen only slowly since the 1970s, and this multi-decade stagnation is not yet over. By contrast, the living standards of earlier generations would double every few decades. The Democratic Party seeks to expand government spending even when the middle class feels squeezed, the public sector doesn’t always perform well, and we have no good plan for paying for forthcoming entitlement spending. To the extent Republicans have a consistent platform, it consists of unrealistic claims about how tax cuts will raise revenue and stimulate economic growth. The Republicans, when they hold power, are often a bigger fiscal disaster than the Democrats. How did we get into this mess?Imagine a tropical island where the citrus and bananas hang from the trees. Low-hanging literal fruit — you don’t even have to cook the stuff.In a figurative sense, the American economy has enjoyed lots of low-hanging fruit since at least the seventeenth century: free land; immigrant labor; and powerful new technologies. Yet during the last forty years, that low-hanging fruit started disappearing and we started pretending it was still there. We have failed to recognize that we are at a technological plateau and the trees are barer than we would like to think. That’s it. That is what has gone wrong.The problem won’t be solved overnight, but there are reasons to be optimistic. We simply have to recognize the underlying causes of our past prosperity—low hanging fruit—and how we will come upon more of it.

Now Mr West-does not like to hear that-he’d rather place the blame on anyone else-Muslims, Unions, CAIR, Olbermann, or any other convienent scapegoat- that his learning impaired followers love to hear bashed.

The problem is, as an explanation its lacking. Cowen’s central idea is that the pace of innovation has slowed, and that we are now on a “technological plateau” that makes further growth challenging. If you consider technology in the broad sense (energy, transportation, home, etc), this makes sense as things have not changed a lot in recent decades.

He points out too, that what technological innovations that have occured-and he fixates here on the internet, are actually accelerating the growth of income inequality, because in the long run they don’t enhance GDP. Without, some careful planning-and redefinition of our values, the technological growth will only reduce available jobs-not add them. Which is fine for the rich bastards at the top of the scale-but sucks for the rest of us.

I’m looking forward to see how he proposes we get out of that time trap.

Sorry baby-I’d love to please you but……………..

The human papillomavirus — more commonly known as HPV — causes more oropharyngeal cancers than tobacco and alcohol use, according to researchers at Johns Hopkins Kimmel Cancer Center.

“This is important because previously HPV was thought to be one of the risk factors for this type of cancer along with tobacco and alcohol use, and now we know that it is the leading cause of this type of cancer,” said Dr. Aimee Kreimer, a professor at the National Cancer Institute and one of the study’s authors.

Oral HPV is transmitted during oral sex and people with multiple oral sex partners are at the greatest risk for contracting the disease, said Kreimer.

Study participants who reported having more than six oral sex partners in their lifetime were 8.6 times more likely to develop the HPV-linked cancer, the study showed.

So much for tastes great-less filling.

Truly,  a revolting development.

Usually makes really bad suggestions. It would seem she is at work again with crop of naive idealists covering the Arab world:

It’s rare for me to advocate something as direct as a military action – but a no-fly zone is something we must as a nation do, and do immediately, if we are to do anything to help bring about a new golden age of democracy in the Middle East. After Egypt, all Arab leaders feared their people; after Libya, the people will again fear their tyrants. All the progress will be lost, all the potential will be wasted.

This is the moment that must be seized. And only we can do it.

Now it may come as a news flash for this crowd-and Nicholas Kristof in particular-but this has to rank as one of the dumber foreign policy ideas ever conceived. Lets look at the reasons why:

1) Ask yourself the first question, “With what airpower will you establish this no fly zone?” Anybody look at the current size of the US Navy and the disposition of US aircraft carriers lately? They are a little busy right now supporting a few other wars of choice. NATO? People should really look at a map when making these suggestions. Even flying from Malta-its a long haul to provide adequate coverage for Libya. Whose tankers are we using?

2) Let’s assume Qhadaffi is on the ropes. Why would anyone want to provide him the lifeline of an American led Satan to point to seeking to invade his country? Right now he has no one to blame but himself.

3) By intervening-we now own whatever government replaces the current regime. Do we even know who that is? Could we-by good intentions actually end up backing a new set of thugs? This is the Arab world after all.

The events in Libya are indeed tragic and a lot of Libyans are going to die before the regime falls. But ask yourself a hard hearted question-”do you really want more American Soldiers and Marines and Airmen dying for an Arab culture that is more than 99% unlikely to be willing to return the favor?” I make no bones about my answer-no I do not.

I don’t want anyone to die in Libya-but given a choice between a Libyan getting the honor of dying for Libya or an American, I’ll pass that on to a Libyan every time.

The best thing we can do is sit on the sidelines and perhaps provide a quiet nudge to the right players from time to time. This is not our our ballgame to play in.

I’ve been watching the events in Bahrain with considerable interest. Not because I think we can influence events one way or the other, in fact I think our best course is to sit tight and wait events out. I am however, amazed at the naivete shown by many American journalists about the country and about region of the Middle East as a whole.

No one, perhaps, symbolizes this overall lack of perspective more than Nicholas Kristof, who I follow on my Facebook page and who has been in the country for the last week. To quickly sum up his reporting-it can best be described as “Stockholm Syndrome“-he’s  fallen in line with the protesters without considering the entire sequence of events from an American point of view.

Now all of this would make for compelling drama if we did not have a stake in the outcome of events-but we do. If for no other reason because Bahrain is the home to the Fifth Fleet. Which is why, I find the cheerleading Kristof has been conducting more than a little strange.

Many here tell me that this is a turning point, and that democracy will now come to Bahrain – in the form of a constitutional monarchy in which the king reigns but does not rule – and eventually to the rest of the Gulf and Arab world as well. But some people are still very, very wary and fear that the government will again send in troops to reclaim the roundabout. I just don’t know what will happen, and it’s certainly not over yet. But it does feel as if this just might be a milestone on the road to Arab democracy.

For King Hamad, who has presided over torture, gerrymandering and lately the violent repression of his own people, I don’t know what will happen. Like HosniMubarak, he could have worked out a deal for democracy if he had initiated it, but he then lost his credibility when he decided to kill his own citizens. Some people on the roundabout were chanting “Down with the Regime,” and they have different views about what precisely that means. Some would allow the king to remain in a largely figurehead role, while others want King Hamad out.

Kristof-without coming out and actually saying it-has implied that is a good thing. He did come out and make a statement that to me was utterly astounding , about how no matter what happens, the Bahrainis would not throw the Fifth Fleet out of Bahrain.

He’s wrong about that-and if the King and the royal family go, and Bahrain becomes something other than a monarchy, Fifth Fleet better start thinking about where it’s going to move to. The decision to get rid of the command ships could prove a costly one.

As my Canadian counterpart noted a while back about Egypt,

Unlike most observers and bloggers, I’ve spent the last several years afraid of widespread “democracy” protests in the Middle East. Because so many people are so ignorant of the history of the region, or just overly optimistic, they don’t understand what the ramifications of what we’re seeing today.

To be fair, President George Walker Bush didn’t understand the ramifications of democracy, either. After the death of YassirArafat, Bush pushed for elections in the Palestinian Authority, over the objections of both Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and PA President Mahmood Abbas, who feared that Hamas was poised to win large majorities. Bush prevailed and, predictably, Hamas won large majorities. The same thing happened in Lebanon after the Syrians evacuated, and Hezbollah won the balance of power.

Democracy, especially in the Middle East, isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Just look at Iraq, an artificial country with deep sectarian divides. Freedom unleashed those divides and they proceeded to kill as many or more innocent people as Saddam did. Let’s assume that Iran became a true democracy tomorrow. There is absolutely no evidence that this would cause Tehran to end it’s nuclear program or abandon its enmity toward Israel. Sure, there’s a lot of wishful thinking to that effect, but no actual evidence.

That last sentence could well be applied to Kristof’s reporting from Bahrain. He needs to come back to the US for a while,eat American chow and start thinking like an American again.

Because these are the facts of Bahrain’s unique demographics. Bahrain has approximately 1.25 million people. Of that 500,000 are of foreign extraction and do not hold citizenship- roughly 275,000 Indians, 125,000 Bangladeshis, 45,000 Pakistanis, 45,000 Filipinos and 8,000 Indonesians, according to various media reports and government statistics.

That leaves roughly 750,000 native Bahrainis split between Arabs and descendants of Iranian descent. They are split, according to unofficial sources such as the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office,  approximately 33% Sunni and 66% Shia. The Royal Family is Sunni-the bulk of the rabble(UPDATE: Several people find this term offensive)people out in the Pearl Roundabout are not. Add to that a long history of Iranian meddling on the Island and you can say that you’re not exactly looking at a brave new world full of folks sympathetic to American interests.

And you can bet your bottom dollar that more than few Iranian stringers are in that bunch practicing a verbal form of anti-American subliminal suggestion. I’ll bet that number has increased in the last two weeks. I can practically guarantee it-because if Iran can get a government more sympathetic to its interests and more conducive to flows of Persians south across the Gulf, they know they have gained an important stepping stone to turning the tables on its American adversary.

Now add to that fact, the other reality- that economically, Bahrain’s interests are not allied with the United States,  but with Asia and with Europe. The country is no longer a major oil producer, and the willingness of the monarchy to cooperate has been tested more than a couple of times in the past few years. Normally they are supportive-but not always. ( I was witness to one of the smaller occasions in 2003 and again in 2005 when they f*cked us at the drive through). The primary motivator for Bahraini support of US basing has been the implied provision of US defense of the island against attack. But take away the Royal family and its relationships with the other nations in the Gulf, and that particular incentive to help America does not possibly look so imperative.

Plus-we need to play the tape all the way to the end. And like in Egypt-a fully functioning democracy cannot spring up overnight.  Depending on the timing of any subsequent elections, an overthrow of the King and the Royal Family could lead to just getting a new set of bullies in their place.

Now to be fair, Bahrain has some differences from Egypt. For one thing,  the  King granted limited reforms at the beginning of the last decade and the country has a parliament ( of sorts) and functioning political parties. The problem is, the strongest party in Bahrain is not exactly a beacon of hope to Western interests.  To date they were kept in check by methods similar to what is used in Hong Kong to rig the results of Legco elections: coalition blocks and an unelected upper house. A straight up democratic election removes those obstacles. So what do we get as a result of that?

We get the Al Wefaq National Islamic Society, the strongest political party and a Shia religious party-that’s not exactly a friend of women or the freewheeling expatriate wanna be such as myself. In point of fact they have advocated some Islamic codes that can only be described as racist and South Africa like. For example, in 2004 and again in 2006 they advocated segregation of South Asia nationals from native Bahrainis because they “‘make the neighborhood dirty”. They also taken a hard line on women’s issues. They insist that on family law and family issues it is the role of the Islamic religious leaders to determine what is right in terms of dress and roles of women. Yea right-we’ve seen how well that works in other Arab countries.

Now the thing that Bahrain has going for it-if they choose to take advantage of it, is the structure of a functioning government through the vehicle of the monarchy. Reforms could be implemented and perhaps, if implemented over a drawn out period of time, it might allow other, more secular and more moderate groups to make gains. That’s where I see the western reporter’s cheerleading and lionizing of the demonstraters as a big mistake. If for nothing else it will fill their heads with ideas that are simply impractical to obtain. Just the facts please-and point out the down side of instant democracy in countries with no tradition of it. ( This is not Eastern Europe and these are not Europeans, which means they are starting out with the count 0-2 against them.).

The violence of Friday was not surprising-and neither is the pull back.  They are simply a way of driving the point home that if the herd goes too far there are going to be consequences. ( With tragic consequences I might add).  I have no doubt the army would be back in their faces in a minute if the government felt that there was no other way to squelch them. However for now- I think they have seen the need to have further reforms, but they have to be reforms that leaves the royal family intact. We’ll just have to wait and see where that leads.

And that, brings me back to the issue of Fifth Fleet. Would they get kicked out? If the Royal Family stays and Bahrain becomes a constitutional monarchy of some sort-I doubt it. If they get booted out though-I’d say the chances of an eventual eviction rise to just under 50%-downstream, not immediately. If we do get to stay-you can be damn sure the price of staying is going to go up monetarily and in other ways. Just give it some time. ( and don’t underestimate the influence that other Shias in other countries will have in making that happen).

If Fifth Fleet did get booted, what are the options? Since I am of the mindset that the current level of military presence in Bahrain and the rest of the gulf is too high to begin with, I can’t decide if us getting booted out is actually doing us a favor in the  long run. But if it did happen, I think the immediate reaction would be to move the Witless Mt. Whitney to the Gulf and embark the primary fleet staff with a lot of the NAVCENT type functions being moved to either Europe or Tampa. I’ve long been a believer that some of the ancillary task force staffs ( specifically CTF-53 and CTF-57 and 54) could and should be moved to Europe, regardless of what happens in the Kingdom. ( the actual functions of moving parts and people could be handled by detachments wearing civilian clothes and keeping a lower profile than is now the case.).

Were the fleet staff  forced to re-embark, I would forsee a whole host of command and control problems that would need to be worked through-those are best discussed in another time and place. But Fifth Fleet would still be able to do its mission-just that the workarounds would not be pretty or popular.

Foreign policy requires a hard hearted pragmatism that cannot be swayed by the emotions of a particular moment. In that regard Mr. Kristof and the rest of the cheerleaders are doing their country -nor the country of Bahrain-no favors by advocating for that which does not foster our long term interests. Be careful what you wish for-because if you wish incorrectly, you just might get it.

The S.O. and I joined a YMCA after Christmas. The reason we (I) did so was because they have Body Pump classes-which the on base gyms here do not have. Now the S.O-owing in large part to her lack of a J.O.B.- is able to go classes daily, but for me it is a relatively new experience. We had been going to BP together-but recently she hurt her lower back so she is letting it heal.

I find I am liking it. Now mind you-most of the classes that the S.O. goes to, I have zero use for: Yoga, Zumba, Water Aerobics etc. But Body Pump is working out very well. Primarily because it is a way I can actually get  some weight workouts in. ( Body pump utilizes light weights with lots of repetitions).

Of course there are some other reasons I’m liking the class:

1. The class is mostly women. I’ve never been in  class with more than four men in it out of 20+ people.

2. It works all of your muscle areas over the course of an hour. ( And at about the 40 minute point your thighs are screaming.)

3. Doing squats when a curvaceous woman is doing the same in front of you-it gives you lots to fantasize about-which usually allows you to finish all the reps in the set.

4. Did I mention that most of the participants in the class were women?

5. Having a class to meet-ensures I will go. If it were just up to me to lift on my own-I would not do it.

6. Women’s gym outfits. Nuff said.

7. The weight used is not too heavy. The instructors focus on ensuring you are lifting in the right way to challenge the muscles. Which makes a lot of sense.

8 And if I did not mention it earlier-most of the class are women.

So tomorrow-we will arise and go there again.

And unlike Nir Rosen-I am not going to apologize for what follows.

Lara Logan got beaten and sexually assaulted by a mob of Arabs. And now the world is “shocked” that such a thing would happen to a hot blonde in the middle of crowd of Arabs.

While I feel as much sympathy towards Ms Logan as anyone else-and I wish it had not happened to her-I’m not in the least bit surprised, and neither should anyone else be who has spent any amount of time in the Arab world.

These are Arabs after all. They are anything, but inconsistent.

The whining can start now- and the vicious attacks too. “How can you say that?” ” “No woman deserves to be raped”. ” You are a mysoginist pig”.

I didn’t say anything like that.

But, hey,  knock yourself out- it changes not the reality or lack of risk management practiced by CBS news. On this particular issue-I have to side with the neandrathals-there are certain places it is just not smart to send a woman, especially a  blonde woman reporter, to.

Are you listening DACOWITS?

People don’t like to hear that ugly truth. But it remains the truth just the same. There are times when prudent discretion needs to trump the urge to “break new ground”.  This appears to have  been one of those times.

Ask yourself these questions: 1) Why was it so important to have a woman there? and 2) How many Al Jazerra reporters who speak fluent Arabic got assaulted? Of either sex. I’ll bet the answer is “Zero”.

Look at it another way. I have the freedom to go anywhere I choose. However, whether I like it or not-there are some places, I should simply choose not go to-out of simple common sense prudence and a desire for my own safety.

Which gets back to CBS and its lack of judgement. You cannot tell me that there are not some dark haired, hijab wearing, Arabic speaking reporters that CBS could have paid-who probably also understand Arab culture-to do the same job that Ms Logan got sent to do. Why did it not occur to CBS to take that approach?

Oh yea- I forgot, we don’t have local bureaus anymore,with people who actually have lived in a country for an appreciable amount of time.

Before one goes to ballistic about pointing out what is a simple fact of life-I have a homework assignment for you. Google this phrase and see how many hits you get back: “Filipina women raped by Arabs”.

I’ll save you the time-its over 300,000. Where is the US  media outrage about that?  Most of those women didn’t even try to go down and insert themselves into a mob-they just picked the wrong employer to work for. At a rate of pay far less than Lara Logan’s. Don’t see the western world up in arms about that.

If you parsed the stories in that Google search carefully-you would have found at least TEN (that’s right-TEN) stories of a woman raped in an Arab country since the beginning of this year alone. There is no one who speaks out for them. And its not stopping. It should serve as warning flag though.

Now let’s be clear. I am not condoning what is clearly a horrible crime-no matter who it happens to. My point is, however, that these statistics point out what can only be described as a much higher level of risk for a foreign woman in an Arab country. People in management in CBS news had to know that. Relying on translators and security guards is not enough.

Its what they would call in the aviation world, “supervisory error”-which serves as a contributing factor in the mishap. Arabs are Arabs after all-they are not going to change, no matter who tells them to. Democracy or no-they are still Arabs. This is and will remain an unfortunate fact of life in these countries for a long time to come. At least as long as they practice Islam.

Even after the furor dies down about Lara Logan-those same Filipinas will still be getting on planes out of Manila and some of them will be living in fear just a few months after their arrival. And most of the Arab states will not be lifting a finger to change that. And sadly, no newspaper outside of the Philippines will report on it. Its a lousy story and a big part of what is wrong with the Arab world.

Its an outrage-just like Lara Logan getting raped is an outrage. But all of our moral pretensions is not going to change that anytime soon. That’s the world we live in and will report about. You cannot eliminate these risks-no matter how much you want to.

Because these people are Arabs.

You can manage risk though and try to keep it diminished or avoided. And one way is to actually have reporters who can blend into crowds and speak the language. And if its absolutely vital to go against that advice…..

Well, don’t be surprised when it blows up in your face.

When I read this tragic story-I could not help but think, ” That could happen where I work!”

What’s really scary is that it could happen-and I’m not kidding.

Kind of like the people who have to work here:

Is useless on a Monday when deadlines are near. The S.O. came up on the short end of the stick-again. However, in my defense-I did buy her earrings and a ring in Bahrain……………

And we have seen zero gratitude for that!

Then again-before women start whining-remind them how lucky they are not be living in ancient Rome!

From Feb. 13 to 15, the Romans celebrated the feast of Lupercalia. The men sacrificed a goat and a dog, then whipped women with the hides of the animals they had just slain.

The Roman romantics “were drunk. They were naked,” says Noel Lenski, a historian at the University of Colorado at Boulder. Young women would actually line up for the men to hit them, Lenski says. They believed this would make them fertile.

The brutal fete included a matchmaking lottery, in which young men drew the names of women from a jar. The couple would then be, um, coupled up for the duration of the festival – or longer, if the match was right.

I dispatched the following letter to Congressman West today. That’s right-our boy Allen West.  In Allen West-you find everything that is wrong with the our new Galtian overlords all rolled up into one package. Watching this video filled me with disgust and enough anger, that I felt a responsibilty to write the guy himself:

The Honorable Allen West

1708 Longworth HOB

Washington, DC 20515

Dear Congressman West:

I had the misfortune this weekend to have had to watch your closing address to the CPAC conference. Since I too am a retired military officer who served approximately at the same time as you did, I find you take on world events profoundly disturbing.  The difference between us, it would appear, is that I actually learned something during my service around the world-and you clearly learned nothing. I viewed your address with utter disgust, that supposedly educated people could elect someone such as yourself, whose views are so extreme and wrongheaded, to a position of responsibility in the Congress of the United States.

I have three issues to raise with you.

The first, is your knowing acquiescence to a violation of the Hatch Act by having a serving Soldier appear at a political convention, in uniform-to give what can only be described as a political speech, endorsing you, to a political group.  He may not have known it was against the law-but I know you do. Your callous use of this young man to further your own twisted political ambitions represents a new low-even for someone who associates with the Tea Party.

Second, your speech is full of lies and misrepresentations of recent American history. For example you cite the often told lie that the administration is seeking to bring on 16000 new IRS agents. This statement may be red meat for the simpletons that attend a CPAC convention-but it is an out and out lie. The claim has been debunked repeatedly by authoritative sources and yet you and others repeatedly cite it. Your interpretation of the new healthcare law is similarly flawed-especially your assertions that the bill is unconstitutional (it’s not, and I believe the Supreme Court will ultimately uphold it), your assertion of all the new “taxes”-which are not taxes at all- shows that it is you that have not taken the time to read and understand the law, not the people you castigate for supporting the bill. Furthermore-your assertion that the underlying principles in the law, primarily the mandate will not work, have not been proven correct in the experience of other countries. I lived almost nine years in  Japan. I’ve also been in and around the system in Singapore. Both nations have mandatory assessments for health care and they work well. I’ve seen both systems up close and experienced them. Your claims about a “nanny state” are ignorant. When my [S.O's] heartless American employer downsized her position out of existence, she was able to move effortlessly to the Japanese National Health Insurance program-with no loss of coverage and the ability to see a doctor on the same day if need be. My experience living overseas where, by the way, the quality of life exceeds that here in the states-convinced me that we as a nation need to improve our health care system NOW. Is the new health care bill everything I want? No. But it’s a hell of a lot better than the lack of alternatives you and your Tea Party sycophants are offering.

That’s just one example of where you and I part ways politically. Now that may be part of the democratic process, but in your case there is one final aspect to the campaign and the style you show as a serving Congressman- that I hold in utter contempt.

You repeatedly use your former military rank as a shield-having been a military officer once,  does not give you a free pass on stupid ideas now. You repeatedly portray yourself as some sort of a victim because of your difficulties in Iraq. I refuse to accept that-you deserved that Article 15 you got, and whenever I see you on TV, I ask myself this one question: “ How many battalion commanders served in Iraq and did not go to NJP and get forced to retire?” The answer is : “Most of them”. So don’t hold yourself up as some paragon of moral virtue. I remain convinced the Army acted properly in your case. You are neither a hero or a villain-but you did make a mistake and you paid for it.  NJP was appropriate and the Army was right not to let you walk away scot free.

Now, some seven years later, it should matter for nothing-but it does because you made it an issue. You capitalize on it and in fact play it up for your Tea Party audience. You did the same in your CPAC speech. It is not that the troops serving in Iraq don’t have the right ROE-it is that they never should have been there in the first place.

So don’t you lecture me on the “superiority” of your values. Furthermore, don’t talk to me about all the spending cuts “you” are going to make, because you and I both know that by exempting defense and most entitlements-you are not even beginning to address the problem. Want to save some money? Want to balance the budget? Repeal the Bush tax cuts, put a surcharge on gasoline and most importantly, get the hell out of Iraq and Afghanistan. NOW-not years from now. The wars are a waste of lives and treasure, and they do NOTHING to advance the security of the United States.

In closing, I intend to do my part to make sure that you are defeated in the election of 2012. I will give money to your opponent and were I in Florida I would actively participate in your opponent’s campaign. You have allied yourself with some really bad people and you are using them in an opportunistic fashion to further your own political ambitions. There is nothing virtuous in that. In a normal world you would be regarded as a crank and an extremist-but sadly, we don’t live in a normal world in America politically. The GOP (a party I voted with for over 25 years until the war in Iraq) has been taken over by the crazies-and so, as a result, you get to channel the ignorance of millions and create a climate of fear and loathing. You decry the tactics that were used against you in the campaign? Look in the mirror, you are equally as guilty of using the same tactics or worse.

So at the end of the day-I am compelled to give voice to the contempt I hold for you. There are plenty of military retirees who can serve well as a representative in Congress. You, however-based on your actions over the last three years and your speech at CPAC-are not one of them.  Reasonable people need to see through your hype and oppose you. This letter is my way of doing so.

Sincerely,

Skippy-san