Far East Cynic

A friend sent me this in e-mail. Read for your self what ails the Bush Presidency. It is scary how right these folks tend to be in their analysis…. I especiallly like their ideas about what is happening with Europe…….

America Unplugged
By Peter Zeihan

The presidency of George W. Bush is failing.

Love him or hate him, Bush has had the most dramatic international impact of any U.S. president in a generation. But as Bush’s fortunes ebb, his ability to control events in Washington and much further afield are fading as well. Geopolitics, like nature, abhors a vacuum, and there is no shortage of players hoping to profit from the political equivalent of U.S. self-flagellation.

American Paralysis
In August, we wrote that the United States was beginning to move “Beyond the War on Terrorism.” We argued that the United States had achieved the bulk of what it had set out to do in first containing, and then pursuing and dismantling, al Qaeda.

We put forward that Iraq was a central feature of that plan, and that despite the ongoing horrors there, the broad strategic goals that the United States set out to achieve had indeed been accomplished. Saudi Arabia, Syria and — to a lesser extent — Iran were all cooperating with the United States in destroying al Qaeda as a strategic threat. The organization’s offensive abilities degraded, from the ability to pull off a Sept. 11, 2001, attack that reshaped the world, to a series of metro bombings in London that did not even produce a glimmer of consideration within the U.K. government that policy should change. Terrorism, of course, continued to occur around the world, but its ability to dictate U.S. foreign policy had largely evaporated. All that was left was some hardly insignificant cleanup, and the United States could then get around to the serious work of dealing with the real issues: boxing in China and boxing up Russia.

But Iraq has not flowed gently into epilogue, and the final agreements that seemed so tantalizingly close in August remain elusive. In the interim, the American citizenry has grown weary of the conflict — in which the number of American dead has now passed 2100 — and Bush’s popularity has suffered as a result.

But the real inflection point of this presidency was not Iraq; rather, it was Hurricane Katrina. Rightly or wrongly, Bush was perceived not just as unprepared for a major hurricane strike, but also as oblivious to the seriousness of the humanitarian disaster in New Orleans. This perception solidified the opposition of the U.S. left, denied the president any help from the American center and cracked the heretofore unified American right. The result was a president in danger of losing his core supporters, without whom no president can effectively rule. Similar circumstances condemned past statesmen such as Wilson, Truman, Johnson and Nixon into the unenviable company of failed presidents.

Since Katrina, the Bush administration’s fortunes have only slid further, with three critical defeats standing out most glaringly. First, its primary congressional ally, former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, has been indicted for fundraising improprieties. Second, the administration’s efforts to shuttle Harriet Miers into the Supreme Court resulted in a break within the Republican Party. Third, the vice president’s chief of staff — Lewis “Scooter” Libby — has been indicted for disclosing the status of undercover intelligence officers to the press, a charge that may well be pressed against political mastermind Karl Rove, and perhaps even the vice president himself.

What this amounts to is that the Bush administration has alienated the Republican Party’s religious wing and those who value national defense above all else. Between that and the loss of DeLay, the president’s star has fallen so far that he can no longer demand meetings with key legislators; he must negotiate for them. His foreign policy agenda is weighed down by the albatross of Iraq, and since congressional Republican leadership is keeping its distance from the president, his legislative agenda has not so much as budged in months.

Even if Bush manages to recover, we are eyeing what will be at least six months of extreme administration weakness. If Bush does not recover, however, stretch that out to until Jan. 20, 2009. A lot can happen in three years.

And, as chance would have it, the United States is not the only power currently facing a crisis of confidence and capabilities.

European Paralysis

The failure of the Dutch and French referendums on the EU constitution during the early summer was more than simply the failure of a vote; it signaled a failure of the very idea of Europe as a supranational entity. Ultimately, the European Union institutions as we know them today are a result of France’s efforts to transform the countries of Europe into a platform over which it could rule and from which it could project power. France has always wanted to be able to punch above its weight in the international arena, and Europe was to be its vehicle for achieving that goal.

Yet in May, the French rejected the EU constitution — and with it, the French vision for Europe.

In large part, the French rejected that vision because they realized it had become unachievable. The other European states were not willing to become French vassals, and once the French realized that they were merely another member in — and therefore merely another subject of — European institutions, French nationalism trumped the French desire for French Europeanism. As the union expanded, part of being European came to mean that France does not always get its way. Ultimately, that is something that the French found unacceptable.

And this was hardly the limit of what has gone wrong in Europe recently.

The British enjoy a rebate from the EU budget for the years in which they contribute more to the EU than they receive back (which is every year). The French, who convinced the Germans to back them, are guaranteed a full quarter of all EU agricultural subsidies even though they are among the union’s richest members. With the addition of 10 new — poorer — states into the EU in 2004, the two standing policies are now in direct financial conflict.

Put another way, for the French to continue to enjoy their gravy train, either the British have to give up their rebate or all those new poor states need to give up some of the EU development funds — the one part of the EU budget that is actually productive. Family spats over money are always the most vitriolic, and this one has reopened issues about the fundamental nature of the EU as well as discussion over the benefits and problems of enlargements, both past and future.

With the very idea of a European entity with a global reach DOA, the ability of “Europe” to act abroad becomes limited to the capabilities of its constituent powers. And in addition to these powers’ lacking Washington’s normal reach, they are nearly as politically truncated as the United States.

As France reels from the EU constitution defeat, it now also has to deal with the cultural, political and economic aftermath of three weeks of race riots. The United Kingdom’s position on reducing the EU budget has radically reduced its influence within Europe. But more importantly, the Blair government recently lost its first Parliament vote — typically an early sign that a prime minister is about to attach an “ex-” to his title.

Finally, there is Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel has just wrapped up her first full week on the job. The new chancellor has more of a chance than any other European leader to get a fresh start, by seeking a rapprochement with Europe’s smaller states as well as the United States. Yet even if she is wildly successful in her foreign relations, and even if her awkward left-right coalition is not sunk by inter- and intra-party bickering, this will still take a great deal of time. No, Europe is as out of the international picture as the United States is for the moment.

Of Absent Cats and Busy, Busy Mice
The result is an unfettered international system.

The world has been gradually sliding toward true unipolarity for the past 15 years. France’s view of the European Union was one attempt to stem that evolution, as are China and Russia’s on-again, off-again attempts to forge an unwieldy coalition of powers that contains states such as Brazil, India or Iran. Ultimately, however, geographic location dictates that all such attempts will fail.

The European Union could never be a political superpower because the British, Irish, Spanish, Portuguese, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Poles, Hungarians, Czechs, Slovaks, Slovenes, Romanians, Bulgarians, Greeks, Italians, Dutch, Danes, Swedes and Finns really see no point to letting Paris or Berlin dictate their domestic economic or foreign security policies. The idea of a multipolar world is similarly unworkable. Adjacent land powers are only able to ally when both face imminent destruction or one is in a clearly subordinate position — something that makes us watch Chinese-Russian relations with increasing interest — while a quick glance at the trade flows of states like Brazil and India clearly show that any political ambitions for setting up an anti-American alliance are limited predominantly to rhetoric. It often does not take a great deal of effort for the United States to use these characteristics to prevent such alliances — geographic features alone nearly assure an American preponderance of power — and so, since the end of the Soviet Union, U.S. power has increased step by step relative to other powers.

But what happens when that dominant power finds itself engrossed by internal developments? When this happened to Russia during President Vladimir Putin’s first term, Central Europe was swallowed by NATO and the European Union; the United States moved troops into Central Asia; China — not Russia — got its fingers into Kazakhstan’s energy resources and encouraged a thousand migrant feet to bloom in Siberia; and color revolutions broke Moscow’s grip on Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan and Georgia.

But now the United States — indeed the entire West — is in a world of its own.

Eventually the period of inattentiveness will end, even if it takes until the next election, so time is a precious commodity. The question dominating the thoughts of national leaders who often find themselves at loggerheads with Washington is: How do I maximize my position before Washington stops staring at its own navel?

Down in Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez has always done his best to take advantage of Washington’s short attention span, and the next few months will be no exception. For him the mode is the Bolivarian Revolution — and using his ample oil revenues to extend his political reach by manipulating elections in Bolivia and Honduras, supporting indigenous movements in Ecuador, and likely funding Colombia’s new united left wing, the Democratic Alternative Pole. Across the border in Brazil, President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva is far less ambitious, but he is certainly reaping the rewards in terms of public popularity by killing U.S. efforts to create a Western Hemispheric free trade area — the keystone of Washington’s Latin American policy.

In Asia, Pyongyang has got to be wallowing in glee. Anytime the United States is distracted, North Korea tends to be able to foment crises that get concessions from its neighbors. Beijing, while undoubtedly equally happy, will be far more circumspect in its efforts. For China, a U.S. disengagement allows it more time to whip its economy into shape. That means slowing efforts to amend its currency policy; the yuan peg will remain, and China need not worry overmuch about the United States taking advantage of the social unrest that Beijing’s softly-softly economic reforms trigger.

Across the Middle East, where U.S. foreign policy has been most active since the Sept. 11 attacks, the effect will be far more noticeable among enemies and allies alike.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will have no reason to do more than give the occasional polite nod to American requests, allowing him to impose his own version of a final settlement on the Palestinians; it will be one they do not much care for. Pressure on Saudi Arabia and Egypt to amend their political systems will either evaporate or be waved away. Syria has just gotten the diplomatic equivalent of a get-out-of-jail-free card (and thus has largely gotten away with the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri and the maintenance of its position of superiority in Lebanon). And if you thought the Iranian nuclear program issue was agonizingly annoying before, just wait.

There is the very deadly possibility that Iraq will go from bad to worse. With American pressure ignorable, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran have little reason to cajole groups to come to the table and every reason to manipulate events to their own likings — which, in all cases, involves making the American experience miserable. U.S. power can no longer guarantee that the Kurds, Shia and Sunnis will meet, much less hammer out a workable power-sharing accord, leaving Washington — still — holding the bag and handing out concessions to prevent the situation from degrading further still. And of course, Iraqi guerrillas are hardly finished.

Although it may be out of the headlines, the United States is still pursuing the al Qaeda leadership in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region, which is extremely difficult without the active participation of Pakistani forces — forces that in the best of circumstances need to have their feet held to the fire to ensure cooperation. Without some robust American arm twisting, Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has little incentive to pursue a policy that could well bring his government down around him — not to mention put a bullet in his head.

The Russian Moment
But by far the country with the most pressing need to act — and coincidentally, the most room to act — is the one that the United States has been pressing the hardest: Russia.

Unlike U.S. efforts to contain Venezuela or block a rising China, with Russia the United States is playing for keeps. The Soviet Union was one of only three states that have ever directly threatened the United States — the other two being the British Empire and Mexico. The Soviet Union also came as close as any power ever has to uniting Eurasia into a single integrated, continental power — the only external development that might be able to end the United States’ superpowership. These little factoids are items that policymakers neither forget nor take lightly. So while U.S. policy toward China is to delay its rise, and U.S. policy toward Venezuela is geared toward containment, U.S. policy toward Russia is a simple as it is final: dissolution. Ergo Russia’s string of deep and rapid defeats.

But suddenly, the pressure has evaporated.

We are sure to see much more traditional Russian thinking in efforts to construct a multipolar world: attempts at hiving France and Germany away from the rest of Europe; heavy diplomatic engagement with would-be powers like India, China and Venezuela; a resumption of technical efforts with Iran’s nuclear power program; reinsertion of Russian influence into North Korea and Syria. But ultimately all of these strategies represent old thinking. What concrete results does Russia really get from having a “strategic partnership” with India, aside from some arms sales? Political hegemony in places like Syria reduces Russian strategy to the diplomatic equivalent of a monkey wrench. The threat to Russia is far deeper, and so if Russia is to use its breathing room to achieve anything of lasting use, it needs a change of mind-set — and that is precisely what is under way.

On Nov. 14 two men — Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov — were promoted to deputy prime ministerships. Both are extremely canny politicians and have repeatedly demonstrated the ability to think outside of traditional Russian paradigms. For them, the pre-eminent concern is forestalling further Russian losses and resurging Russian power. Stymieing U.S. initiatives — the default position for most Russian authorities who have been in positions of power since Soviet days — is only of high priority when those initiatives actually affect Russia.

Put another way, the new deputy prime ministers think that Russian policy should be a bit more thought-out than simply shouting “nyet” whenever the Americans are up to something. For them issues such as North Korea, Syria, India, Brazil and even Iran are of much lower priority. The real issues are items closer to home: Uzbekistan, Ukraine, the Baltics. It is less about attempting to maintain the long-outdated international balance of the Cold War that Russia’s nationalists crave, and more about more traditional Russian concerns of securing the borders by expanding them — or at minimum expanding Russia’s “zones of comfort.”

And so it is in these borderlands where Russian efforts will intensify in the months to come. A key tool in the Russian advance will be Gazprom, the state natural gas monopoly, which incidentally boasts one Mr. Medvedev as its chairman of the board. On Nov. 29, Gazprom’s deputy CEO announced sharp price increases for a range of former Soviet states, including the Baltics, Ukraine and Georgia. In the case of Kiev, such hikes will likely rip the bottom out of the Ukrainian basket.

A number of politicians throughout the Commonwealth of Independent States are in the process of discovering that not only is the Bear not asleep, but the Eagle is too preoccupied to help shield them from its prowling. In some places — such as Poland and the Baltics — where progress away from Russia is an established fact, this will only deepen animosity toward Russia. But in others where the situation is much more tenuous — most notably Ukraine — it is leading to efforts at accommodation and will result in a resurgence of Russian influence.

While the economic stick is the order of the day in the western reaches of the former Soviet Union, the southern flank is seeing primarily the military carrot. Central Asian states are many things, but “stable” and “politically inclusive” are certainly not on that list. In a region where Islam is the dominant religion and Afghanistan is but a short walk — literally — away, the result has been a government demonizing of militant Islam as a justification for authoritarianism.

Yet efforts to maintain authoritarian control have reduced the options of any opposition forces to one: operating outside the system. Imagine the shock in Central Asian capitals when their policies gave life to the fears buried within their rhetoric. Islam is now a bastion of political — and sometimes militant — opposition, and a few sporadic Islamism-inspired attacks have shaken Central Asian political establishments to their core. Suddenly the United States’ “revolution” efforts have gone from being perceived as an interesting side note to a deadly threat, and Russia is happy to pick up the pieces of Washington’s post-Sept. 11 Central Asia security policies for itself. U.S. forces have already been ushered out of Uzbekistan, and a U.S. diplomatic and economic presence is really only welcome in Kazakhstan — and even there only on specific terms.

What is particularly notable about this renewed Russian push is how much room there is for progress. American policy in Russia’s near abroad has largely been dependent upon the border states’ natural antipathy toward Moscow, and not on building stable institutions or links between these regions and the wider world. This makes vast tracts of territory easily accessible to the Russians, whose infrastructure remains hardwired into the entire border region. Without consistent Western attention, geographic realities can easily reassert. Ukraine — unlike Romania — is simply on the wrong side of the Carpathians for it to be otherwise.

Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.

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From the Mutant Frog:

Pop quiz: You’re a man sitting on the train in suburban Japan, minding your own business. The attractive lady sitting next to you nods off and unknowingly rests her head on your shoulder. You:

a) Pretend like nothing is happening
b) Wake her up—she’s distracting you from your Yukan Fuji!!
c) Silently appreciate how safe Japan is since this kind of thing happens all the time
d) Seize the moment—cop a feel!

To see what happens when you choose the wrong answer, go here.

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Discovered this website: www.silktide.com that rates web sites on content and ease of use. My poor little blog did pretty well with one big exception:

A page was found in violation of the the current W3C Web Content Accessibility Guidelines.

This website is probably unlawful in Britain from the 1st October 2004. The British Disability Discrimination Act makes it unlawful to discriminate against a disabled person by refusing to provide any service provided to members of the public – including websites

.

SIGH! And the words : “Sir Skippy” had such a nice ring to it………….

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One of the more interesting things about living over here is the time difference. Sundays here are Saturdays in the states, thus I have to watch most major sporting events in the middle of the night or in the morning. It also means I get to watch the Sunday news programs on Sunday evening or see them repeated on Monday morning, if one can even get them at all. This week I was able to watch “Meet the Press” , however.

I like Tim Russert, although I realize there are those who do not, or think that he has a liberal agenda. Me, I think his questions are usually on the mark and generally can make his guests squirm in their seats a little. This week, as expected, the topic du jour was the war. He had Joe Biden and John Warner on the program discussing the “exit strategy”. Biden was not exactly Mr. Positive

MR. RUSSERT: Let me start the conversation with Senator Biden. By some comments you made at the Council on Foreign Relations on Monday–here it is: “I do think that many [Democrats] have reached a conclusion, as many of my Republican colleagues, that this is lost.” Is that the view in the Senate, the war is lost?
SEN. BIDEN: Well, I think there’s a number of people that think it is. I do not think it is. I think we have a six-month window here to get it
right. But I have to admit that I think its chances are not a lot better than 50:50, and it requires a real change in course along the lines that–Senator Warner laid out an amendment; got 79 votes in the United States Senate. I think if the president follows that prescription, we got an even shot to make this a success.

John Warner got the thankless job of defending the President:

MR. RUSSERT: Senator Warner, as chairman of the Armed Services Committee, do you believe we can continue to have 150,000 troops in Iraq over the next two years?

SEN. JOHN WARNER, (R-VA): I certainly do, but more importantly, yesterday, Joe, I took your article, which I’ve got right here, and I went over it with Pete Pace word by word–chairman of the Joint Chiefs. And he said, “That’s inaccurate, that assumption.” He said,”We can do it. And we will do it.” We’ve got estimates, if we–the ground condition’s justified, as the president said, to pull down. We’ve got an option to increase the forces. Now, we will go from 158,000 to around 138,000 shortly after the elections, assuming the ground situation covers it. But my good friend
here and I differ strongly. This article is entitled “Timetable.” We should not be establishing any timetable with regard to our withdrawal.

Yes sir, Senator, it can be sustained by robbing the other services blind and by bullying the other services to giving up manpower for Iraq that it has no business giving up. That’s consistent with the Rumsfeld line:

SEN. WARNER: Joe, when I talked to Pace yesterday, he said one of the means with which we’re going to maintain those force levels is what we call cross-training, taking certain segments of the Army and retraining them in 30 to 60 days to perform the basic fighting we see against the insurgents, take elements of the Guard, which might take a little longer. You know, artillery men can become infantry men, artillery men can become policemen.

SEN. BIDEN: Fundamental change.

SEN. WARNER:
No, well, it may be a fundamental change. We certainly did it in World War II. We did it…

Actually Sen. Warner, we did not. What the US did then however was make full use of the manpower that the country could generate, by putting the country on a wartime footing and fielding a large Army. What we are doing here has another name: “Robbing Peter to pay Paul”. The USAF and Navy are being forced to each give up about 10,000 people to the war at the same time they are reducing force structure by 1/4.

Regardless of the outcome of the political discussion on whether to withdraw or not, I am tired of hearing that the services can do it all with less people and assets. If this really is a global war on terror then those Navy people being shoveled into Iraq are depriving some one else of trained personnel to do other missions. Especially since the US Military is doing about 4-5 wars, not just one. Lets look at the list:

1) Iraq
2) Afghanistan
3) Horn of Africa
4) Security assistance and interdiction in PI and Southeast Asia
5) And oh yes, along the way deter China and North Korea from starting a war.
6) Anything left can be used to actually defend the US

That’s a pretty full plate, especially for a Navy that is less than 300 ships. Not to worry though. Thanks to FRP we can just keep turning them and the people around and keep sending them back out. Retention is high isn’t it? That means their motivated. They don’t need stability in their lives or time with their families. They don’t need to complete other things such as education. Just keep walking up the brow………because we can’t afford to size the armed forces for the real scale of the effort. “People are expensive”.

Yea they are expensive, because they are worth investing in.

So here is my heartfelt wish. Stop trying to do it all with less people and assets. If this is a priority to win in Iraq, stop mortgaging the rest of the house to do it. Shut up and pay the bill Mr Rumsfeld…..and Mr Biden and Mr. Warner. That would be a real national service……….

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Back on the right side of the globe again. Another 11 hour flight in the back with the other refugeestourists. Vainly tried to use my up grade certificates. The girl at the counter with typical German stiffness said, ” you vill sit in your assigned seat. Ve have no other seat for you…” . Read, slept, read some more, slept some more.

Some of the the things I read:

a) George Best passed away this weekend at 59. Many of the British papers had some very interesting articles about his life and achievements on the pitch and off. For you non-soccer conversant folks George Best was considered to be the best football player of his generation . One quote said, “He made football beautiful”. Since I don’t follow Manchester United or any other English football team, what I found interesting was the turbulent career he had and the hard driving, drinking life style he lived away from the field. It, of course, is a cautionary tale on the price of fame and living life to excess and premature death. The moralists would portray it as a familiar tale of self destruction. Ok, ok, that’s true. However, I found Best’s tale fascinating the more I read since it appears he and Skippy had two similar interests in common: women and booze…

The quotes by him and about him made for fascinating reading:

” People always say I should not be burning the candle at both ends. Maybe they have not got a big enough candle”. -George Best, 2003

” They say I slept with 7 Miss World’s. I didn’t. It was only four, I didn’t turn up for the other three.”- George Best

B) The Swiss Guard gets the “Cajones of the Week” Award. Good for the Swiss Guard! I knew I liked those guys. Wish the US Supreme court could have understood the real issues when it ruled in favor of the destruction of my alma mater……

The Vatican told women Tuesday that they have no chance of becoming members of the Swiss Guard, the elite group that has been charged with protecting popes for 500 years. The Vatican’s position on the admission of women was underscored at a news conference called to disclose plans for six months of celebrations of the anniversary of the unit’s founding.

“I can’t imagine that we would open up the Swiss Guard to women,” its current commandant, Colonel Elmar Mader, said in response to a question. He said that barracks in the Vatican were “small and cramped” and he did not want disciplinary difficulties.

“They are young and I don’t want to enlist problems,” he said. “I’m not saying that women are not qualified to be in security forces, but it is a question of discipline.”

Perhaps this guy should testify before Congress. Or DACOWITS……..

Finally read all about the fun and games on Capitol Hill this week. More in another post. However I do have a hotel recommendation for you: Hotel Metropol near Franfurt Hbf. Any hotel that has :a) Free mini bar, b) free high speed internet connections, c) free breakfast and d) free copies of the Economist….well that’s a good hotel.

Got to stop now…brain cells shutting down……ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzz!

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Now its time to say goodbye to Fritz and all his friends…..

Came back to Franfurt last night and today the S.O. got the idea to go to Heidelberg. So we did, even though we have to catch the plane this evening. Its a good day when you can visit, Heidelberg and walk all around it and still get to end the day in the Frankfurt Christmas market eating sausage and drinking beer! Ja ne……

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Short post, just to say, I’m still here!

We’ve been touring Bavaria by car with short day trips from Munich. Tuesday was Neushwanstein Castle and a nice drive through Starnburg and down to Fussen. Yesterday, we went to Oberamergau and also to Castle Lindhof, which in the snow looked like something out of someone’s Christmas card.

Col Grundel would have been proud of me. I did not take one of the English guides at Lindhof and listened to the tour guide give the tour in German. Lots of words were unfamilar to me, but I got the general meaning of his talk. As I mentioned earlier, oneof the plusses of this trip is that for a change, I’m the one buying the tickets, reading the menus and talking to the sales clerks. Its nice to be doing that for a change. In Japan its about half and half her ordering and me listening…….

Today was Nyphemberg castle and a good walk around downtown. As we were touring we came across a whole group of Chinese VIP’s getting the “special” tour. As we left the castle they came out of another door and were guided to the line of Mercedes limo’s with little Chinese flags. I wish I could have scribbled a big sign that said” Independence NOW! for Taiwan.” Alas not time. All Chinese big wigs look alike in their black suits. They do!

Back to Frankfurt tomorrow. Zannen desu! These 3 days have been pretty good. And then there is the beer………..

Soon its back to Nihon and the usual fun and games at work. Been reading the news and seeing John Murtha crucified in the press. Sad. Agree or not he has provoked a needed discussion and I think that was his whole intent. The good news is the voters in Johnstown will probably re-elect him. That’s better than the gerry-madered district in Pittsburgh I vote absentee in…….

Got to run……

Happy Thansgiving. My Thanksgiving feast was Bratwurst and Weiswurst……..somehow not quite the same as turkey and fixin’s.

Then again, there is the beer………..

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Rothenburg was great, but cold! It snowed the whole way down and on the way back, and even when we were there had to dart in and out of the shops to get some feeling back in our fingers. Rotenburg reminds me of Williamsburg, neat to see, but more of a tourist trap with not a lot to do if you decide to stay there. Still it was a good day again, and the S.O. was happy she got to see what was in the Japanese guide book. Since I’m just the Chauffuer here (and getting very little reward for it might add!) I guess that is all that counts.

Off to Munich today I’ll be living with a dial up there.

Note to self: “Why the hell have you still not purchased a wireless card?”

Ja ne………..

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There is a lot to talk about in politics today, but quite simply I do not have the energy or the brain cells after 3 Warsteiners to attempt it.

Today was just a great day! The S.O. had been fussing about the money I spent to rent a car here, thinking we could just make do with walking and taxis and trains. However she wanted to see the Rhein and she thought their would be no cruises this time of year….( she was wrong …again!). However she appreciated the car when we got out and got to Mainz to do some sightseeing / shopping. It was foggy and we were concerned it would no lift. But it did and it gave way to a perfectly glorious day. We pushed on from Mainz to Rudesheim where there are lots of wine shops and other things to buy. Since I had to drive…..(DAMNIT!) I had to suffice with a taste of some really good Ice Wine.

Back on the road we took route 42 which runs right along the river bank. The views we saw were beautiful! The leaves were in their full range of colors. Lots to see and took plenty of pictures. We drove all the way up to Koblenz stopping in a couple of paces along the way. Driving the Mercedes rent a car was pretty awesome too………(B-180 Diesel, handles like a charm……).

If you ever get a chance to drive this route, take it!………I hate driving but today was just great for some reason.

In Koblenz got to see the first of what I am sure are many Christmans markets. I was a bit suprised to see one, I thought they started later.

Important safety tip on the auto bahn I discovered. If you are not doing 130+ stay the hell out of the left lane!

Off to Rotenburg tomorrow………..

Still need to convince the S.O. not to try to bargain with European shopkeepers. Some looked really offended……You can take the girl out Japan, but you can’t take the Japan out of the girl!

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We made it but I’ll tell you direct Tokyo- Frankfurt in the cattle car is brutal, even if it is a Lufthansa cattle car.( Any airliner that serves Warsteiner beer and does not charge for it, cannot be all bad…..). Its now 6 am saturday and I am slept out. I’ve been in bed since 8 last night and it only took about 2 pilsner sleeping pils to get there.

A few random observations from the trip so far:

Russia is a BIG country. The aircraft spent most of the flight over Russian airspace and I think that was a lot more time than a TYO-SFO leg would be…….

My high school German teacher and Lt Col Grundel, my Hungarian born, German college professor, would be shocked to know that I actually learned something. And Colonel, I acknowdledge publicly that you were right and my 19 year old self was wrong, I should have stuck through your classes for all 4 years of my experience at my beloved alma mater. However you can take satisfaction in knowing that your lessons actually did take hold in my small brain and I can actually read the paper and understand the spoken German here pretty well. Thank you for being good teachers and forcing language drills on me……

Speaking of language, I love being finally in a situation where the S.O. does not have the upper hand when it comes to reading signs, or menus, or even watching TV. I can tell she hates that. That may be the most fun of this entire trip……

Its clear I hit a nerve by supporting Chuck Hagel in my last post. Good. I still agree with James Webb about Iraq. While clearly, there are poltitical undertones to the current discussion about Iraq in Congress, I also think it underscores something I have believed for a long time, the President has only about 9 more months of public patience on the war to rely on and that 2006 will have to show some REAL Iraqification of the security effort or things will be very noisy domestically. Yesterdays news about bombings does not bode well……

Its also clear that, with better leadership the Democrats could actually be making some legitimate points. John Dean and Harry Reid are not it……….neither is Hillary. Its interesting that it is responsible Republicans who are making the best and most coherent arguements on the war today. Democratic rhetoric is just making the right wing have to work less hard. If they had some decent leadership, they could actually win some elections………..

It’s cold as you know what here………

Finally, cold or not Germany is cool……Hopefully will have som pix to post in a couple of days……..

Skippy-san

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Early tomorrow, up and on the train to Narita for the S.O.’s birhtday trip…..

Not sure how the blogging is going to be for the next week, so if you see no new words, well, remember Papillion…: “I’m still here, yoou greasy bastards!!”

Speaking of that line, here’s to Chuck Hagel for forgetting his republican zombie oath and acting like a real thinking American:

“The Iraq war should not be debated in the United States on a partisan political platform,” the Nebraska senator remarked. “This debases our country, trivializes the seriousness of war and cheapens the service and sacrifices of our men and women in uniform. War is not a Republican
or Democrat issue. The casualties of war are from both parties. The Bush administration must understand that each American has a right to question our policies in Iraq and should not be demonized for disagreeing with them. Suggesting that to challenge or criticize policy is undermining and hurting our troops is not democracy nor what this country has stood for, for over 200 years. The Democrats have an obligation to challenge in a serious and responsible manner, offering solutions and alternatives to the Administration’s policies.”

Amen and amen, and that statement alone has given me new inspiration. Of course he will be attacked by the usual crowd of sycophants, but in this case they will be wrong and the good Senator from Nebraska right. Thank goodness he had the courage to say what many think……..
Just shows you can be a Republican and think too……

Contrary to what many have heard. : They are different……..

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Have read the new CNO does not like the term human capital strategy. Accordingly, I’m told its called Total Force stategy now. When the budget is all said and done however, the end result is still the same:

Just ask any one working for a base these days about that!

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Deutschland, Deutschland, uber alles; Uber alles im dem Welt….Two days till I depart for the Fatherland for the S.O.’s birthday trip. That for sure qualifies as one of my more stupid decisions, burning precious vacation time I could be spending on myself in Thailand, just to make her feel better about getting older……..Example number one of screwing up a good thing.

Example number 2 is Japan’s Princess Sayako’s wedding to a commoner yesterday. Under a 1947 law, female royals automatically become commoners when they are married and are barred from assuming the throne. ( Does not work that way for men though……is this a great country or what?) To prepare for this dramatic comedown, Princess Sayako has taken driving lessons and practiced shopping at supermarkets; the couple has studied catalogs to choose furniture and appliances for their new home. Or as Hemlock from Hong Kong described it:

As a result of marrying so far beneath her station, the delicate and coy Nori, as she is affectionately known, will have to leave the emperor’s palace and move into a shabby little public housing unit. While her husband is off performing his municipal duties, she will no doubt attend to her beloved flower arranging, pausing once in a while to gaze wistfully out of the grimy window at the local trains passing by below, perhaps catching a fleeting glimpse of drunk salarymen passing the time on their 3-hour commute by groping schoolgirls or reading depraved manga comics.

Obviously, we all agree, she is in emotional turmoil after being isolated from the real world all these years in the rarified surroundings of the imperial household. Isn’t this street-cleaner taking advantage of her naivety? There is unspoken concern among us as we glide down towards Central. How can this horny-handed son of toil, while no doubt decent and honest in his rough, soap-deprived, working-class way, treat this precious and innocent chrysanthemum with the respect and sensitivity she deserves, especially in the early days of their union, when she is becoming accustomed to connubial life? Fate, for some reason, has required me to introduce a number of 30-something ladies to the long-overdue pleasures of the bed chamber, and I know that it requires patience, tender consideration and perhaps a few glasses of Bailey’s. Seeing their delight as they discover the wonders bestowed by the sacrifice of their purity is its own reward. As a Taiwanese art gallery assistant once wrote to me in an embarrassing fax that amused Ms Fang the hunter-killer secretary so much that she showed it to everyone, “a woman is like a house – the older she is, the faster she catches fire.” Who can restrain a shudder at the thought of this fragile and noble beauty’s unsullied womanhood suffering the clumsy, forcible attentions of a brutish city employee?

Man! That guy can write!

She did make a beautiful bride though:

As it should be, the woman walking 4 steps behind her man. Too bad I can’t get the S.O. to do that………

And of course she had reason to smile when the Imperial Household agency told her about her dowry…….(152.5 Million Yen! 1,386,386 dollars!):

As a member of the royal family though….think of the money she had access to.

And in the final and most egregious example of screwing up a good thing and breaking something that was not broken, was talking to a Navy friend who is working on details of the proposed move of the Carrier Air Wing from Atsugi to Iwakuni……This is supposedly one of the things George W and Koizumi san are going to laugh about and toast over sake this week ( well Koizumi might, sadly, Laura won’t let George drink anymore….)……..wait till the Japanese government gets the bill for all the things they are going to have to build:

Housing, new maintenance support buildings, payoffs to the local governments in Yamaguchi prefecture………. And what does the US get out of this bold , brave cave in to statistically minor numbers of complaints about noise in Yamato city? Not a damn thing…….. No additional training can be done in Iwakuni that is not already done here, hours and hours of waiting for transportation up to Yokosuka for the ships crew, No place for 1,600 strapping examples of American youth to go on liberty…..( Have you ever been to Iwakuni city? Tokyo it ain’t….). As my friend pointed out, the US Navy would be better off just deploying a carrier here from the states 365 days a year than doing all the workarounds this move is going to require……..

As I said, nothing like taking a really good sweetheat deal and screwing it up……..Can’t just leave a good thing alone……..that would not be the American way!

Now where the hell is my German dictionary…?

Skippy-san

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On the DOD web site, came across this headline. I am suprised it has not been more widely reported:

Former DoD Transformation Head Dies at Age 63

While I did not agree with some of his ideas, the man was truly brilliant and his mind worked at a level about 3 times above the average persons. I had the opportunity back when I was on active duty to brief him, and his questions were deep, thoughtful, and always straight to the heart of the matter. Truly,a loss for the Navy and the United States.

No cause of death is given in the article. 63? Good grief, that is just really unfair. Sad news indeed.

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George W. Bush is coming to Asia……..oh great!

He just made my job as a transportation planner twice as hard. Why? Because whenever the President goes anywhere, its not just Air Force One that goes wheels in the well. On average 6- 8 C-17′s are positioned to move all the “crap” that goes with a presidential entourage. It would be all well and good if we had tons of spare C-17′s around, but the truth of the matter is, we don’t. There is this little fracas in Iraq, Afghanistan, Philippines, and Horn of Africa to deal with. So whatever region the President visits, hears the giant sucking sound of the USAF pulling aircraft of validated transport missions to be available to back up the back up aircraft. And as is always the case, the USAF immediately turns to the Navy and says, “suck it up!”.

I’ve seen this before, when Bush came out for the APEC summit last year. We lost about 15 % of our validated missions for a period of almost 2 and 1/2 weeks. As I said before it would not be such a big deal, except that there are Carriers flying 100 sortie days, Helicopter ships doing sea surveillance, and other aircraft that need parts, many of which cannot be subcontracted out to commercial carriers due to the size and or composition of the cargo. AMC is always slow to respond or plan ahead for these evolutions because they are essentially a steady state operation despite their “Global Reach” propaganda. As a result the readiness of “real people” suffers due to the “ripple effect”……… Some of it you can work around, others you can’t.

Under the category of “That’s Entertainment” , Jenifer has come across some really interesting flash videos. Reading her posts lately, she and I are seeing eye to eye. She is a smart lady. She is sticking up for John Mc Cain, bashing Tom Cruise and Russel Crowe. She understands the USFSPA:

She even provides a free history lesson at her blog……..

I’d offer her a beer, but she would just kick my ass, so I’ll leave well enough alone.

I’ve been doing some reading lately of some pretty interesting and off the wall books. I recently finished a history called Empire Made Me . It is the story of Richard Maurice Tinkler, and Englishman who , when unemployed after the war, made his way to Shanghai to become a member of the Shanghai Municipal police, the folks who kept law and order in the British international settlement in Shanghai. Tinkler became famous at the outset of World War II for getting bayoneted by a Japanese soldier. As the book notes, ” Tinkler would have remained just another anonymous and forgotten colonial policeman were it not for his unexpected death, at the hands of Japanese marines and an incompetent local doctor, in June 1939. His suspicious death created a noisy diplomatic incident that was picked up by journalists and splashed across the front pages of Britain’s newspapers.”

However, what I found interesting about Tinkler was the fact that the longer he stayed in Shanghai, the less he had a desire to return to England. He felt almost exiled by his old country, and also his service, a sentiment I can very much understand and empathize with. He came to enjoy the life of an expatriate and although he was very much a racist, he was also a keen observer of the world in Shanghai. The book is also an interesting expose of the racist undertones that were well present in the Empire during the interwar years and were echoed by Tinkler………

I also went back and re-read The French Foreign Legion by Douglas Porch, formerly a history professor at my beloved alma mater. Lately, I have been trying to read as much as I can about Algeria and the revolt against 130 years of French rule. Its interesting for 2 reasons: A0 I think there are parallels with Iraq and b) the loss of Algeria set the stage for the current riots by Muslims in France. I’m still looking for a good history of the period, so if anyone knows of one, please let me know.

And finally, watch this charming little bit of entertainment and see if you can look at Rush Limbaugh the same way again………….Nasty, but still funny. It is safe for work, provided you don’t work with ditto heads……..

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